[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 November 15 issued 2330 UT on 28 Nov 2015 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 29 10:30:26 EST 2015
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 NOVEMBER 2015 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 NOVEMBER - 01 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Nov: Very low
Flares: B class flares
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Nov: 97/44
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Nov 30 Nov 01 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected Probable
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 100/48
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was very low during 28 Nov UT.
The largest flare of the day was a B6.0 event peaking at 11:34
UT. The 2-day outlook is for very low solar activity. A weak
C class flare is possible. GONG H alpha observations show a large
prominence located off the south west limb of the visible solar
disk. Coronal Hole 703 has crossed the central meridian into
the Western Hemisphere. The solar wind speed gradually increased
during 28 Nov and is presently about 350 km/s. The magnitude
of the IMF is about 10 nT and the Bz component has been predominantly
northward but with short duration southward excursions to -10
nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 28 Nov : A K
Australian Region 5 12112122
Cocos Island 8 12132133
Darwin 5 12112222
Townsville 5 12112222
Learmonth 5 11012132
Alice Springs 5 12112222
Norfolk Island 4 11112122
Gingin 6 11112133
Camden 6 12123112
Canberra 4 11113111
Launceston 7 12223122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Nov :
Macquarie Island 7 11124022
Casey 22 45532233
Mawson 14 23223244
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Nov :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1211 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
30 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
01 Dec 20 Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet with brief unsettled
periods throughout the Australian region during 28 Nov UT. The
planetary magnetic index Kp reached 3 during 12-15 UT. Geomagnetic
conditions are expected to be quiet with unsettled periods during
29 Nov. Coronal Hole 703 has entered the western hemisphere of
the solar disk. A minor geomagnetic storm is possible during
1 Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
30 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were mildly
depressed in the Southern and Northern Hemisphere during 28 Nov
UT. Conditions are expected to be depressed in the Southern Hemisphere
today, 29 Nov.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Nov 50
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 37
Nov 66
Dec 65
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Nov 35 10 to 25% below predicted monthly values
30 Nov 35 10 to 25% below predicted monthly values
01 Dec 40 5 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were mildly
depressed to depressed throughout the Australian region during
28 Nov UT. For example, the preliminary daily T index was 35
at Brisbane and 20 at Hobart. The conditions are expected to
be depressed today, 29 Nov.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Nov
Speed: 308 km/sec Density: 4.9 p/cc Temp: 61500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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