[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 November 15 issued 2330 UT on 11 Nov 2015 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 12 10:30:28 EST 2015
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 NOVEMBER 2015 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 NOVEMBER - 14 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** RED **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Nov: 105/54
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Nov 13 Nov 14 Nov
Activity Low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was very low.
Low activity is expected on 12-Nov and very low activity on 13-14
Nov. The solar wind speed has declined to 610 km/s after peaking
at 805 km/s. The wind speed is expected to climb again under
the influence of an equatorial coronal hole on 12-Nov. The total
IMF strength declined slightly from 5 nT to 4 nT while the Bz
component varied within +/- 5nT.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 11 Nov : A K
Australian Region 11 32333321
Cocos Island 9 32222420
Darwin 11 32333321
Townsville 13 32433321
Learmonth 14 32333431
Alice Springs 11 32333321
Norfolk Island 8 -2323221
Culgoora 8 2232---2
Gingin 15 32334431
Camden 14 33433321
Canberra 11 32333321
Launceston 22 43543431
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Nov :
Macquarie Island 35 43655531
Casey 24 45434432
Mawson 47 44444674
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 40 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 42 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 21
Planetary 27
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 32
Planetary 35 4455 6433
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Nov 35 Quiet to Minor Storm
13 Nov 20 Unsettled to Active
14 Nov 15 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 52 was issued on 11 November
and is current for 12-13 Nov. Geomagnetic conditions for the
last 24 hours over the Australian region ranged from quiet to
active, with brief storm periods in Tasmania. Active to storm
level conditions were observed in the Antarctic region. Mostly
quiet conditions are expected on 12-Nov until combined CME and
coronal hole effects result in active to minor storm conditions,
continuing into 13-Nov and abating somewhat on 14-Nov.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Nov Normal-poor Poor-fair Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Nov Normal-fair Poor-fair Poor-fair
13 Nov Normal-fair Poor-fair Poor-fair
14 Nov Normal-fair Poor-fair Poor-fair
COMMENT: Significantly degraded HF conditions are expected to
continue for the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Nov -3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 45% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 50% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 40% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 37
Nov 66
Dec 65
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Nov 0 30 to 40% below predicted monthly values
13 Nov 10 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
14 Nov 0 30 to 40% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 70 was issued on 10 November
and is current for 11-13 Nov. Australian region HF conditions
were degraded and observed MUFs were significantly depressed
over the last 24 hours. Similar conditions are expected over
the next 3 days, due to disturbed geomagnetic conditions.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 8.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.00E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:25%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Nov
Speed: 661 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 307000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list