[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 November 15 issued 2330 UT on 10 Nov 2015 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 11 10:30:31 EST 2015
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 NOVEMBER 2015 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 NOVEMBER - 13 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Nov: 105/54
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Nov 12 Nov 13 Nov
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was low, with
the largest event being a C3 X-ray flare from region 2443 (N07W88).
Regions 2448 (N07W01) and 2449 (S12E19) are in decline. The CME
observed on 9-Nov will probably give Earth a glancing blow around
early 12-Nov. Low solar activity is expected for the next 3 days,
with a 10% probability of M-class or greater events from region
2443 on 11-Nov. The solar wind speed has increased from ~600
to ~700 km/s under the influence of the northern hemisphere coronal
hole. Total IMF strength decreased from 10 nT to 5nT. The Bz
component fluctuated between +/-9 nT early on 10-Nov, gradually
damping to +/-5 nT. An equatorial coronal hole is expected to
become geoeffective around the same time as the CME arrival,
keeping the solar wind speed elevated until around 13-Nov.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Nov: Unsettled to
Active
Estimated Indices 10 Nov : A K
Australian Region 16 33343333
Cocos Island 11 32333321
Darwin 13 33333223
Townsville 18 33444332
Learmonth 16 33343333
Alice Springs 16 33343333
Norfolk Island 14 33433232
Culgoora 31 33-6--3-
Gingin 19 43343433
Camden 19 33444333
Canberra 13 33343222
Launceston 26 34455333
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Nov :
Macquarie Island 41 45566432
Casey 34 56544333
Mawson 61 55645666
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 49 (Unsettled)
Canberra 78 (Active)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 26
Planetary 38
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 22
Planetary 23 3444 3334
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Nov 20 Quiet to Unsettled
12 Nov 40 Active to Minor Storm
13 Nov 20 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 51 was issued on 9 November
and is current for 10-12 Nov. Geomagnetic conditions for the
last 24 hours over the Australian region were mostly unsettled
to active, with brief storm periods in Tasmania. Active to storm
level conditions were observed in the Antarctic region. Mostly
quiet to unsettled conditions are expected across the Australian
region on 11 Nov, with more active conditions on 12-Nov with
combined CME and coronal hole effects, abating somewhat on 13-Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Nov Normal-fair Fair-poor Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Nov Normal-fair Poor-fair Poor-fair
12 Nov Normal-fair Poor-fair Poor-fair
13 Nov Normal-fair Poor-fair Poor-fair
COMMENT: Significantly degraded HF conditions are expected to
continue for the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Nov 9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 45% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 37
Nov 66
Dec 65
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Nov 0 30 to 40% below predicted monthly values
12 Nov 0 30 to 40% below predicted monthly values
13 Nov 0 30 to 40% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 70 was issued on 10 November
and is current for 11-13 Nov. Observed MUFs for the Australian
region were significantly degraded over the last 24 hours and
are expected to remain so over the next 3 days, due to disturbed
geomagnetic conditions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:18%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Nov
Speed: 493 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 164000 K Bz: -4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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