[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 November 15 issued 2330 UT on 08 Nov 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 9 10:30:27 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 NOVEMBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 NOVEMBER - 11 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Nov: 108/58
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Nov 10 Nov 11 Nov
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 108/58 108/58 110/60
COMMENT: The solar activity was at very low levels for the UT
day, 8 Nov, with no C-class or M-class flares. The strongest
flare was B5.6 observed at 08/0232 UT from Region 2449. The 2-day
outlook (9-10 Nov) is for very low solar activity with C class
flares possible. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs)
were observed in available coronagraph imagery. The solar wind
in the past 24 hours was between 450 and 600 km/s. It has gradually
increased over the past 24 hours and the current solar wind speed
is around 540 km/s. This observed variation in solar winds is
associated with the waning effects of the 04 Nov CME triggered
by the M3.7 flare and the approaching very wide, recurrent positive
northern hemisphere coronal hole. The southern section of this
coronal hole is expected to approach geoeffective position on
the solar disk within the next 12-24 hrs. The Bz component of
IMF ranged between -10 to +10 nT and Bt was between 5-18 nT during
the UT day (8 Nov). Notably, IMF Bz has been mainly oriented
southwards for at least 10 hrs of the UT day. The two day (9-10
Nov) outlook is for the solar winds to increase again in response
to the arrival of the co-rotating interaction region and high
speed stream associated with the northern coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 08 Nov : A K
Australian Region 10 22133233
Cocos Island 8 22123232
Darwin 9 22133223
Townsville 10 22133233
Learmonth 10 22133233
Alice Springs 9 22133223
Norfolk Island 8 11133232
Culgoora 9 3113----
Gingin 13 21134234
Camden 10 22133233
Canberra 6 11023132
Launceston 14 22234243
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Nov :
Macquarie Island 16 11135442
Casey 16 33343333
Mawson 48 32244477
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 29
Planetary 39 4665 4341
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Nov 25 Active
10 Nov 20 Active
11 Nov 20 Active
COMMENT: The geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet to unsettled
during the past 24 hrs (08 Nov). This moderately active conditions
are the aftermaths of the 04 Nov CME. The 24 hour outlook (9
Nov) is for the geomagnetic conditions to remain unsettled and
at times reach active levels. IMF Bz has been southwards for
prolonged periods during the last 12 hrs and solar winds are
still strong (currently 540 km/s), so minor active periods are
expected. The two day outlook is for possible minor geomagnetic
storms associated with the approaching northern hemisphere coronal
hole. There is a chance of aurora sightings on the evenings over
the next two days (9-10 Nov) from Southern Australian regions,
such as Tasmania and Victoria.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Nov Fair Fair-poor Fair-poor
10 Nov Fair Fair Fair-poor
11 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: The HF conditions has been very poor over the past 24
hours (08 Nov) due to negative storm effects in ionosphere following
the passage of the CME. The two day outlook is for HF conditions
to remain degraded. The onset of high speed solar streams from
the approaching very large recurrent positive northern coronal
will further delay the recovery of MUFs.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Nov -33
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 45% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 55% during local day.
Depressed by 45% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 45% during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 37
Nov 66
Dec 65
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Nov -10 30 to 40% below predicted monthly values
10 Nov 0 30 to 40% below predicted monthly values
11 Nov 20 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Observed MUF's for the Australasia regions on the UT
day 08 Nov were strongly degraded. This degradation is due to
negative storm effects in ionosphere following the passage of
the CME. The two day outlook is for HF conditions to remain degraded.
The onset of high speed solar streams from the approaching very
large recurrent positive northern coronal will further delay
the recovery of MUFs.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Nov
Speed: 560 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 85700 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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