[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 November 15 issued 2348 UT on 07 Nov 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 8 10:48:18 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 NOVEMBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 NOVEMBER - 10 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Nov: 115/66
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Nov 09 Nov 10 Nov
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 115/66
COMMENT: The solar activity was at very low levels for the UT
day, 7 Nov, with 3 C-class flares from the East quadrant of the
solar disk (Regions 2448, 2449 and 2550). There were no M-class
flares during the UT day. The strongest flare was C2.4 observed
at 07/0523 UT from Region 2450. The 2-day outlook (8-9 Nov) is
for low solar activity with C class flares possible. No Earth-directed
coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraph
imagery. The partial halo CME associated with M3.7 flare from
Nov 04/1352 UT had arrived at Earth near the anticipated time.
An interplanetary shock associated with the CME hit the ACE spacecraft
at 06/1735 UTC and arrived at Earth at 06/1825 UTC. As a result,
the solar wind jumped abruptly from 420 km/s to 600 km/s at 06/1735
UTC and IMF Bz also fluctuated strongly. The solar wind peaked
to 720 km/s at 07/0300 UT and thereafter gradually declined as
the effects of the CME waned. The current solar wind speed is
around 500 km/s. The IMF Bz at the time of peak solar wind speed
was strongly southward, near -10 nT. It remained southward for
at least 10 hours. The combination of strong solar wind speed
and favourable IMF Bz lead to a major geomagnetic storm during
the UT day. The IMF Bt was between 10 and 20 nT during the past
24 hrs. In addition, a very wide recurrent positive northern
coronal hole is expected to approach geoeffective position on
the solar disk late on UT day Nov 8. This coronal hole appears
wider and clearly located further equatorwards compared to its
size/position in the previous rotation. The solar winds from
this coronal hole reached up to 520 km/s in the previous rotation.
A slightly enhanced solar wind magnitudes are expected from this
rotation. The outlook is for the solar winds to gradually decline
to near ambient levels as the effects of the CME wanes. Then
on late hours of UT day 08 Nov or thereabout, the solar wind
is expected to increase again in response to the arrival of the
co-rotating interaction region and high speed stream associated
with the northern coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Nov: Unsettled to
Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 07 Nov : A K
Australian Region 22 33454431
Cocos Island 17 33344332
Darwin 19 33354331
Townsville 22 43454331
Learmonth 29 44455442
Alice Springs 20 33454331
Norfolk Island 23 33554331
Culgoora 43 336664-2
Gingin 37 54565432
Camden 30 33564441
Canberra 22 33454431
Launceston 38 34664542
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Nov :
Macquarie Island 68 47676541
Casey 29 64543233
Mawson 103 59755653
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 19 (Quiet)
Melbourne 58 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 28
Planetary 45
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 12
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Nov 25 Active
09 Nov 25 Active
10 Nov 20 Active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 50 was issued on 5 November
and is current for 7-8 Nov. The geomagnetic conditions were mostly
unsettled and at times reached major storm levels during the
past 24 hrs (07 Nov). The Australian Dst dipped below -100 nT
from 07/0300 UT to 07/0900 UT and then returned to mostly unsettled
levels for the rest of the day UT. This active period is caused
by arrival of the CME associated with M3.7 flare that occurred
at Nov 04/1352 UT. The two outlook (7-8 Nov) is for the geomagnetic
to remain at mostly near active levels and at times reaching
minor storm levels. This is a combined effect of the aftermath
of CME and the approaching very large recurrent positive northern
coronal hole late on UT day Nov 8. The AP values from this coronal
hole reached up to 24 nT in the previous rotation. A slightly
stronger effect is expected from this rotation. There is a chance
of aurora sightings are on the evenings over the next two days
from Southern Australian regions, such as Tasmania and Victoria.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Nov Normal Fair-poor Poor
09 Nov Normal Fair-poor Poor
10 Nov Normal Fair-poor Fair-poor
COMMENT: The HF conditions has briefly improved over the past
24 hours due to positive storm effects caused by the arrival
of the CME at Earth associated with M3.7 flare from Nov 04/1352
UT. The two day outlook is for the Equatorial regions to continue
to have slightly improved HF conditions in response to the storm
effects. In contrast, the high and mid-latitude regions are expected
to have negative storm effects and depressed MUF conditions.
After the onset of high speed solar streams from a very large
recurrent positive northern coronal hole late on UT day Nov 8,
the MUFs are expected to remain below the monthly predicted levels.
HF users are advised to use lower frequencies in the mid and
high latitudes regions.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Nov 59
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 65% during local night.
Depressed by 55% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 45% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 50% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 37
Nov 66
Dec 65
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Nov 40 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
09 Nov 40 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
10 Nov 50 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 68 was issued on 6 November
and is current for 6-8 Nov. Observed MUF's for the Australasia
regions on the UT day 07 Nov were near the predicted monthly
values. The HF conditions have improved and this is attributed
to the positive storm effect causing a strong lived enhancement
in electron density. The two day outlook is for the Equatorial
regions to continue to have slightly improved HF conditions in
response to the storm effects. In contrast, the high and mid-latitude
regions are expected to have negative storm effects and depressed
MUF conditions. After the onset of high speed solar streams from
a very large recurrent positive northern coronal hole late on
UT day Nov 8 or thereabout, the MUFs are expected to remain below
the monthly predicted levels.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: NA
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: NA
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: NA
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: 14 %
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Nov
Speed: 480 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 88900 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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