[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 May 15 issued 2330 UT on 30 May 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 31 09:30:28 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 MAY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 31 MAY - 02 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 May: 95/41
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 May 01 Jun 02 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 100/48 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low over the last 24 hours.
The currently in progress coronal hole effect has been weaker
than anticipated. The solar wind speed remained mostly around
400 km/s and the Bz component of IMF varied between +5/-4 nT
during this period. Solar activity is expected to remain at very
low levels for the next three days with some possibility of C-class
activity. Solar wind stream is expected to gradually further
weaken on 31 May and stay at normal levels on 1 and 2 June.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 30 May : A K
Australian Region 1 11101001
Darwin 2 11111001
Townsville 3 12111011
Learmonth 2 12111000
Alice Springs 1 01101001
Norfolk Island 2 12201001
Culgoora 2 11111001
Gingin 1 11100000
Camden 1 11101001
Canberra 0 0000000-
Launceston 2 12101001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 May :
Macquarie Island 0 00011000
Casey 4 23112000
Mawson 8 22312014
Davis 5 12322010
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Melbourne 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 May : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 May : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 1111 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 May 6 Quiet
01 Jun 5 Quiet
02 Jun 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at quiet levels today. The
coronal hole effect has been weaker than anticipated. Geomagnetic
conditions are expected to stay mostly at quiet levels from 31
May to 2 June.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
01 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
02 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions were observed during
the last 24 hours due to low levels of ionising solar flux. Nearly
similar conditions may be expected for the next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 May 55
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 101
May 90
Jun 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 May 60 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
01 Jun 60 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
02 Jun 60 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions were observed in Aus/NZ
regions during the last 24 hours due to low levels of ionising
solar flux. Nearly similar HF conditions may be expected in this
region for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 May
Speed: 389 km/sec Density: 7.3 p/cc Temp: 104000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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