[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 May 15 issued 2330 UT on 29 May 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 30 09:30:26 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 MAY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 30 MAY - 01 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 May: 92/37
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 May 31 May 01 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 95/41 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low over the last 24 hours.
As anticipated, the solar wind stream showed some strengthening
due to the coronal hole effect. Solar windspeed showed a gradual
increase from around 360 km/s to 450 km/s and Bz mostly stayed
between +/-5 nT during this period. Solar activity is expected
to remain at very low levels for the next three days with some
possibility of C-class activity. Solar wind stream is expected
to remain around the current level today and then gradually decline
on 31 May and stay at normal levels on 1 June as the coronal
hole effect is expected to gradually decline over the next two
days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 29 May : A K
Australian Region 4 11211212
Darwin 4 11211112
Townsville 5 11221222
Learmonth 5 11221122
Alice Springs 4 01211212
Norfolk Island 4 12111112
Culgoora 3 11111211
Gingin 4 02211212
Camden 3 11111211
Canberra 1 00110111
Launceston 4 11111221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 May :
Macquarie Island 0 00000010
Casey 7 23221212
Mawson 10 22211125
Davis 11 22321115
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 May : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 May : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 3212 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
31 May 6 Quiet
01 Jun 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at quiet levels today, against
an expected rise to periods of active levels. The coronal hole
effect has been weaker than anticipated. Geomagnetic conditions
are expected to stay at quiet to unsettled levels on 30 May and
then gradually decline to quiet levels on 31 May and stay at
quiet levels on 1 June.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
31 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
01 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions were observed during
the last 24 hours due to low levels of ionising solar flux. Mild
to moderate MUF depressions may be expected for the next three
days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 May 61
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 45% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 101
May 90
Jun 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 May 60 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to
30%
31 May 65 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
01 Jun 65 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions were observed in Aus/NZ
regions during the last 24 hours due to low levels of ionising
solar flux. Mild to moderate MUF depressions may be expected
in this region for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 May
Speed: 339 km/sec Density: 8.3 p/cc Temp: 53100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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