[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 May 15 issued 2330 UT on 27 May 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 28 09:30:27 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 MAY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 28 MAY - 30 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 May: 95/41
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 May 29 May 30 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low over the last 24 hours.
Solar wind speed stayed around 350 km/s and Bz mostly stayed
between +/-4 nT during this period. Solar activity is expected
to remain at very low levels for the next three days with the
possibility of strengthening of solar wind stream from 28 May
due to the effect of a coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 27 May : A K
Australian Region 2 01102201
Darwin 2 01102111
Townsville 4 12202201
Learmonth 3 01202102
Alice Springs 2 01202100
Norfolk Island 2 01002101
Culgoora 3 02112201
Gingin 3 00102212
Camden 2 01012201
Canberra - --------
Launceston 3 01112211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 May :
Macquarie Island 2 00012200
Casey 4 12212111
Mawson 14 11102236
Davis 8 01211342
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 May : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 May : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8 2212 2332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
29 May 12 Quiet to Active
30 May 12 Quiet to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at quiet levels today. Geomagnetic
conditions may rise to unsettled levels on 28 May and up to active
levels on 29 and 30 May due to an expected arrival of high speed
solar wind stream from a coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
29 May Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor
30 May Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions were observed during
the last 24 hours due to low levels of ionising solar flux. Mild
to moderate MUF depressions may be expected for the next three
days. Periods of poor HF conditions may be observed on high latitudes
on 29 and 30 May.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 May 65
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 101
May 90
Jun 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 May 55 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
29 May 50 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to
40%
30 May 50 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to
40%
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions were observed in Aus/NZ
regions during the last 24 hours due to low levels of ionising
solar flux. Mild to moderate MUF depressions may be expected
in this region for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.80E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 May
Speed: 317 km/sec Density: 5.7 p/cc Temp: 43600 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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