[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 May 15 issued 2330 UT on 26 May 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 27 09:30:30 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 MAY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 27 MAY - 29 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 May: 95/41
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 May 28 May 29 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low over the last 24 hours.
Solar wind speed stayed between 300 and 350 km/s and Bz mostly
stayed between +/-6 nT during this period. Nearly similar conditions
are expected for the next 3 days with some possibility of isolated
C-class activity. There is some possibility of a coronal hole
effect to strengthen the solar wind stream from 28 May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 26 May : A K
Australian Region 2 11110210
Darwin 2 11100211
Townsville 4 12201211
Learmonth 2 01100220
Alice Springs 2 11100210
Norfolk Island 3 22010210
Culgoora 3 11111211
Gingin 3 12200220
Camden 3 11111210
Canberra - --------
Launceston 4 11221210
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 May :
Macquarie Island 1 00021100
Casey 4 12211120
Mawson 14 33301253
Davis 5 12212121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 May : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 May : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 1001 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 May 5 Quiet
28 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
29 May 12 Quiet to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at quiet levels today. Nearly
similar geomagnetic conditions may be expected on 27 May with
possibility of geomagnetic conditions rising to unsettled levels
on 28 May and up to active levels on 29 May due to a possible
arrival of high speed solar wind stream from a coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
28 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
29 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions were observed during
the last 24 hours due to low levels of ionising solar flux. Nearly
similar HF conditions may be expected for the next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 May 62
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 45% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 101
May 90
Jun 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 May 60 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
28 May 55 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
29 May 50 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to
40%
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions were observed in Aus/NZ
regions during the last 24 hours due to low levels of ionising
solar flux. Nearly similar HF conditions may be expected in this
region for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 May
Speed: 333 km/sec Density: 3.2 p/cc Temp: 51100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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