[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 May 15 issued 2330 UT on 20 May 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 21 09:30:29 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 MAY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 21 MAY - 23 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 May: 106/55
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 May 22 May 23 May
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity is low with only minor C class flares
over the last 24 hours. Solar wind conditions are ambient.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 20 May : A K
Australian Region 4 22212100
Darwin 3 22211001
Townsville 6 22312111
Learmonth 3 22212000
Alice Springs 3 22212000
Norfolk Island 3 22102011
Culgoora 4 22212110
Gingin 3 22202100
Camden 3 -2212100
Canberra 3 22202000
Launceston 4 22-22100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 May :
Macquarie Island 4 12223000
Casey 5 32212110
Mawson 14 34421142
Davis 15 23323153
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 May : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 May : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 18 5422 2232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 May 5 Quiet
22 May 5 Quiet
23 May 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are Quiet and are expected to remain
so for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 May Normal Normal Normal
22 May Normal Normal Normal
23 May Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 May 89
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 101
May 90
Jun 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 May 90 Near predicted monthly values
22 May 90 Near predicted monthly values
23 May 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly near monthly predicted MUF values are expected
for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 May
Speed: 506 km/sec Density: 4.7 p/cc Temp: 178000 K Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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