[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 May 15 issued 2330 UT on 19 May 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 20 09:30:32 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 MAY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 20 MAY - 22 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 May: 110/60
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 May 21 May 22 May
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 108/58 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity is at low levels with a single C2 x-ray
flare in the past 24 hours. Visible sunspot regions are small
and not magnetically complex. The solar wind speed remain elevated
at around 500 km/s. The IMF Bt reduced steadily from just under
20nT to 7nT over the period. Bz has been mostly northward since
02UT. Solar activity is expected to remain at very low to low
levels over the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 19 May : A K
Australian Region 6 32221111
Darwin 6 32221111
Townsville 9 43221122
Learmonth 12 52331120
Alice Springs 5 32221110
Norfolk Island 5 33120011
Culgoora 6 32221111
Gingin 9 42321121
Camden 7 322211--
Canberra 3 31110010
Launceston 6 32221121
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 May :
Macquarie Island 6 32131020
Casey 14 44431112
Mawson 22 64432321
Davis 16 54432110
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Melbourne 15 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 May : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 22
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 May : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 14 2222 3235
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 May 12 Unsettled
21 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
22 May 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions began the UT day with a brief Active
to Minor Storm period but relaxed to settled and since around
12UT conditions have been Quiet. Quiet to Unsettled conditions
are expected for the next day or two with some chance of isolated
Active periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 May Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 May 105
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 101
May 90
Jun 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 May 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
21 May 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
22 May 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly near monthly predicted MUF values are expected
for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 May
Speed: 385 km/sec Density: 4.6 p/cc Temp: 70900 K Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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