[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 May 15 issued 2330 UT on 04 May 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 5 09:30:31 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 MAY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 05 MAY - 07 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 May: Low
Flares: C class flares
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 May: 125/78
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 May 06 May 07 May
Activity Low Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts None expected Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 135/89 135/89
COMMENT: AR 2335 is the most active region and produced the largest
flare of the day, a C8.0 event peaking at 0052 UT. AR 2338 has
also produced a few minor B and C class flares. AR 2335 is showing
signs of increasing potential for flare activity. AR 2322 (N11)
previously produced M-flares and is due to rotate into view during
May 5-6. SOHO LASCO observations show the launch of a halo CME
toward the east during May 2. This CME is expected to arrive
at Earth on May 6. The halo CME observed during May 4 is a far
side event directed away from Earth. GONG Big Bear H alpha images
show a disappearing solar filament in the north east quadrant
during 18-19 UT. Any associated ejecta is unlikely to be Earthward
directed. The solar wind speed has been mostly in the range 360-440
km/s. The magnitude of the IMF has been steady at about 6 nT
and the Bz component has been fluctuating mostly in the range
-5 nT to +5 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 04 May : A K
Australian Region 5 21212211
Cocos Island 3 11212110
Darwin 4 21212111
Townsville 6 21212222
Learmonth 4 21212210
Alice Springs 4 12202210
Norfolk Island 3 21102111
Culgoora 5 21212211
Gingin 6 21213211
Camden 5 21212211
Canberra 5 21212211
Launceston 6 21213212
Hobart 5 11213211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 May :
Macquarie Island 5 00213300
Casey 8 32322211
Mawson 11 33322223
Davis 9 13332221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 May : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 May : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 3321 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 May 7 Quiet
06 May 20 Active
07 May 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet in the Australian
region during May 4. A minor geomagnetic storm is possible during
May 6-7 due to the arrival of a CME.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 May Normal Normal Normal
06 May Normal Normal-fair Fair
07 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation are expected to
be near predicted monthly values in the Northern and Southern
Hemisphere today. They may be slightly depressed at some stations.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 May 87
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 101
May 90
Jun 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 May 85 Near predicted monthly values
06 May 85 Near predicted monthly values
07 May 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation were mostly near
predicted monthly values in the Australian region and are expected
to remain the same during May 5.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 May
Speed: 391 km/sec Density: 3.4 p/cc Temp: 77400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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