[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 May 15 issued 2348 UT on 03 May 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 4 09:48:36 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 MAY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 04 MAY - 06 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 May: 111/62
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 May 05 May 06 May
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with region
2335 (S16E43) the source of two C1.8 flares, one at 0605UT and
another at 0934UT. The solar wind speed ranged between 350km/s-450km/s
over the UT day. The Bz component of the IMF fluctuated between
+/-5nT. Very Low to Low levels of solar activity are expected
for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 03 May : A K
Australian Region 4 22211111
Cocos Island 3 12111110
Darwin 4 12211111
Townsville 4 22211111
Learmonth 5 22221111
Alice Springs 4 12211111
Norfolk Island 3 22210011
Culgoora 4 22211111
Gingin 4 22211111
Camden 5 22221111
Canberra 3 12210110
Launceston 4 12221111
Hobart 3 1212-110
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 May :
Macquarie Island 1 01120000
Casey 7 23321210
Mawson 16 44432231
Davis 10 23432120
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 May : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 May : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 7 2111 1233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 May 5 Quiet
05 May 5 Quiet
06 May 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Mostly
Quiet conditions expected for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 May Normal Normal Normal
05 May Normal Normal Normal
06 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal to slightly depressed HF conditions observed
at low to mid latitudes during the past 24 hours. HF conditions
are expected to be mostly normal for the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 May 81
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 101
May 90
Jun 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 May 80 Near predicted monthly values
05 May 80 Near predicted monthly values
06 May 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today over
AUS/NZ regions with occasional MUF depressions for Northern AUS
and Equatorial regions. Similar levels of ionospheric support
and near monthly predicted MUF values expected for the next 3
days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 May
Speed: 411 km/sec Density: 4.1 p/cc Temp: 115000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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