[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 March 15 issued 2330 UT on 28 Mar 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 29 10:30:33 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 MARCH 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 29 MARCH - 31 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Mar: 146/100
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Mar 30 Mar 31 Mar
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 145/99 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity remains at low levels with only minor
C class flares occurring over the last 24 hours, the greatest
a C2. Low activity levels are expected to continue for the next
few days. The IMF Bt is steadily increasing and has reached 15nT.
This does not seem to correspond to the anticipated high speed
solar wind stream as the solar wind speed remains below 500 km/s.
Bz has remained close to zero with a southward excursion between
around 03-07UT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 28 Mar : A K
Australian Region 6 12222222
Cocos Island 7 12321222
Darwin 5 01222222
Townsville 7 12322222
Learmonth 8 12222323
Alice Springs 5 02222212
Norfolk Island 5 01221222
Culgoora 6 12222212
Gingin 7 11222223
Camden 6 12222212
Canberra 4 01221212
Launceston 7 02322222
Hobart 6 02322112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Mar :
Macquarie Island 5 02330111
Casey 13 25331222
Mawson 18 13431245
Davis 13 14432223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 2221 2102
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Mar 15 Unsettled to Active
30 Mar 15 Unsettled to Active
31 Mar 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are Quiet. Unsettled to Active conditions
could occur over the next 24 hours at the interplanetary magnetic
field is elevated such that if the orientation swings southward
activity would be expected. A high speed solar wind stream is
expected in the next day is expected to cause Active conditions
on arrival.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
30 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
31 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Mar 106
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 116
Mar 90
Apr 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Mar 100 Near predicted monthly values
30 Mar 90 Near predicted monthly values
31 Mar 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum useable frequencies for HF communications are
expected to be around predicted monthly values for the next few
days. Some depressions at high and possibly mid latitudes may
be observed on the 29th to the 31st of March due to expected
geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+08 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Mar
Speed: 408 km/sec Density: 5.3 p/cc Temp: 54700 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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