[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 March 15 issued 2330 UT on 27 Mar 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 28 10:30:34 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 MARCH 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 28 MARCH - 30 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Mar: 138/92
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Mar 29 Mar 30 Mar
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity is at low levels with at most C1 flares
in the last 24 hours. Solar wind conditions are ambient. A coronal
hole high speed stream is expected to arrive within the next
24 hours. Solar flare activity is expected to remain at low levels
for the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 27 Mar : A K
Australian Region 7 22223211
Cocos Island 5 22113200
Darwin 5 12222112
Townsville 6 22223111
Learmonth 6 22223111
Alice Springs 6 22223201
Norfolk Island 5 22122111
Culgoora 6 12223111
Gingin 7 21124211
Camden 6 22123211
Canberra 6 12123211
Launceston 7 22223221
Hobart 6 12223211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Mar :
Macquarie Island 8 12124311
Casey 11 34323112
Mawson 21 54322315
Davis 16 53333312
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 19 (Quiet)
Canberra 9 (Quiet)
Melbourne 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 2120 2213
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Mar 12 Unsettled
29 Mar 20 Active
30 Mar 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are Quiet to Unsettled. A coronal
hole high speed wind stream is expected to arrive sometime in
the next 24 hours bringing active conditions with a chance of
minor storms at high latitudes on arrival.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
29 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
30 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Mar 125
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 116
Mar 90
Apr 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Mar 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
29 Mar 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
30 Mar 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum useable frequencies for HF communications are
expected to be around predicted monthly values to up to 20% enhanced
for the next few days. Some depressions at high and possibly
mid latitudes may be observed on the 28th and 30th of March due
to expected geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Mar
Speed: 440 km/sec Density: 5.2 p/cc Temp: 61400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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