[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 March 15 issued 2330 UT on 19 Mar 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 20 10:30:41 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 MARCH 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 20 MARCH - 22 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Mar: 109/59
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Mar 21 Mar 22 Mar
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with
a single C2 flare from region 2302 (N10, west limb). Low solar
activity is expected for the next 3 days. The solar wind speed
is still elevated, though has declined from ~670 km/s to ~590
km/s. The IMF magnitude reached 8 nT, but is now around 6 nT.
The IMF Bz component was mostly southward, down to -7 nT, until
around 14 UT and has since fluctuated between +/-6 nT. The solar
wind is expected to decline until 22-Mar when coronal hole effects
are likely to raise it again.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Mar: Quiet to Minor
Storm
Estimated Indices 19 Mar : A K
Australian Region 19 22445323
Cocos Island 9 21333222
Darwin 13 22334323
Townsville 15 22344323
Learmonth 16 32344323
Alice Springs 14 22344322
Norfolk Island 15 22444322
Culgoora 18 22445313
Gingin 18 32345233
Camden 21 22455323
Canberra 18 22445322
Launceston 27 33456323
Hobart 21 23455322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Mar :
Macquarie Island 54 34577443
Casey 25 45453233
Mawson 54 64555347
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Mar :
Hobart 73 (Active)
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 45 (Unsettled)
Canberra 51 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 22
Planetary 27
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 32
Planetary 46 5435 6654
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Mar 20 Quiet to Active
21 Mar 15 Unsettled to Active
22 Mar 20 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Active to minor storm conditions were observed across
the Australian region from 06 to 15 UT, with mostly quiet to
unsettled conditions outside that period. Some active periods
are expected to persist into 20-Mar, abating gradually until
22-Mar when coronal hole effects are likely to again produce
more active conditions.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Mar Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Mar Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor-fair
21 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Mar 91
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 116
Mar 90
Apr 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Mar 80 Near predicted monthly values
21 Mar 90 Near predicted monthly values
22 Mar 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs returned to near monthly predicted values on 19-Mar,
though some areas experienced mild depressions at times and brief
periods of poor ionospheric support. Similar conditions are expected
for 20-Mar, with further improvement by 21-Mar.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Mar
Speed: 580 km/sec Density: 3.0 p/cc Temp: 219000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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