[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 March 15 issued 2332 UT on 18 Mar 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 19 10:32:17 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 MARCH 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 19 MARCH - 21 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Mar: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 17/2336UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Mar: 115/66
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Mar 20 Mar 21 Mar
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate over the last 24 hours,
with an M1 flare from region 2297 (S18W71), peaking at 17/2334.
There were several C-class flares from regions 2297 and 2302
(N10W67), the largest from the latter a C9, peaking at 18/0751
UT. The material from a CME associated with the M-class flare
was directed mostly west. A filament liftoff from 18/0936 to
18/1322 UT was observed near region 2299 (S04W18), but relevant
SOHO/LASCO imagery is not yet available. Region 2297 declined,
while region 2302 (N10W67) showed continued growth. The solar
wind speed gradually increased to a peak of 762 km/s, and is
currently ~670 km/s. The IMF magnitude declined gradually to
5 nT while the Bz component reached a minimum of -11 nT, and
is currently -5 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Mar: Unsettled to
Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 18 Mar : A K
Australian Region 30 43455533
Cocos Island 19 32334533
Darwin 22 33344533
Townsville 28 33455533
Learmonth 41 53356634
Alice Springs 28 33455533
Norfolk Island 29 33555522
Culgoora 33 3-555533
Gingin 42 53356644
Camden 31 33555533
Canberra 31 33555533
Launceston 38 44655533
Hobart 34 44555533
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Mar :
Macquarie Island 54 54666643
Casey 48 45644734
Mawson 71 55555577
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Mar :
Hobart 53 (Unsettled)
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 8 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 17 (Quiet)
Canberra 39 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 36
Planetary 53
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 46
Planetary 118 1465 8877
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Mar 25 Unsettled to Active
20 Mar 15 Quiet to Unsettled
21 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Minor storm conditions were observed across the Australian
region from 06 to 18 UT, with mostly unsettled to active conditions
outside that period. Unsettled to active periods are expected
to persist into 19-Mar, abating gradually thereafter.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Mar Poor-fair Poor-fair Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Mar Poor-fair Fair-normal Fair-normal
20 Mar Normal-fair Normal Normal
21 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUFs are expected to be moderately to significantly
depressed across the globe on 19-Mar.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Mar 25
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 50% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 50% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 116
Mar 90
Apr 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Mar 60 15 to 25% below predicted monthly values
20 Mar 90 Near predicted monthly values
21 Mar 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 8 was issued on 17 March
and is current for 18-19 Mar. Lack of ionospheric support for
HF communications and/or significant depressions were observed
across the Australian region on 18-Mar. Moderate depressions
are expected to persist during 19-Mar, with MUFs returning to
near monthly predicted values on 20-Mar.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.0E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 6.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Mar
Speed: 556 km/sec Density: 9.0 p/cc Temp: 143000 K Bz: -13 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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