[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 June 15 issued 2349 UT on 27 Jun 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jun 28 09:49:29 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 JUNE 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 28 JUNE - 30 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Jun: 97/44
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Jun 29 Jun 30 Jun
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 105/54
COMMENT: Mostly low level solar activity is expected for 28 June.
No Earth directed CMEs were observed during 27 June. Solar wind
parameters suggest the anticipated CME arrived approximately
half a day earlier than forecast. Solar wind speeds increased
to over 800 km/s following the CME arrival and are presently
around 500 km/s. The IMF increased in strength to around 15nT
and was predominantly northward, with southward IMF observed
during the past few hours. Energetic particle flux levels declined
below the event threshold during 27 June but may again rise above
the event threshold during the next 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 27 Jun : A K
Australian Region 4 22211002
Cocos Island 3 22211001
Darwin 5 33211001
Townsville 5 23211012
Learmonth 6 23311002
Alice Springs 5 23211002
Norfolk Island 4 22211012
Culgoora 4 22211002
Gingin 3 22211001
Camden 4 22211002
Canberra 2 12210001
Melbourne 5 22321001
Launceston 5 22321002
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Jun :
Macquarie Island 2 11220000
Casey 12 34422112
Mawson 14 43332214
Davis 21 34432106
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 14 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne 19 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10 3223 1213
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Jun 15 Unsettled to Active
29 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
30 Jun 6 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 26 was issued on 26 June and
is current for 27-29 Jun. Solar wind parameters suggest the anticipated
CME arrived approximately half a day earlier than forecast. The
associated IMF was predominantly northward muting the effects
of the CME. Southward IMF was observed during the past few hours
which may slightly elevate geomagnetic activity levels in the
coming hours, otherwise conditions are expected to be mostly
quiet to unsettled with the chance of active to minor storm periods
at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jun Fair-poor Fair-poor Fair-poor
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 0130UT 26/06, Ended at 0240UT 26/06
and, 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 0425UT 26/06, Ended at 0525UT 27/06
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jun Fair-poor Fair-poor Fair-poor
29 Jun Fair Fair Fair-poor
30 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Significantly degraded HF conditions were observed during
27 June. Degraded conditions are expected to continue for 28
June with some slight improvement from the past few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Jun 45
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 83
Jun 86
Jul 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Jun 50 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
29 Jun 55 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
30 Jun 60 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Significantly degraded HF conditions were observed during
27 June. Degraded conditions are expected to continue for 28
June with some slight improvement from the past few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Jun
Speed: 505 km/sec Density: 1.0 p/cc Temp: 87900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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