[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 June 15 issued 2337 UT on 26 Jun 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jun 27 09:37:25 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 JUNE 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 27 JUNE - 29 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Jun: 101/49
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Jun 28 Jun 29 Jun
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: Solar region 2371 is declining in complexity and size
as it rotates towards the west limb. There is still the small
chance of M-class flare activity from this region. A weak CME
was observed in LASCO C3 imagery around 1430UT on 26 June however
it appears predominantly westward directed and is not expected
to be geoeffective. Solar wind speeds are presently around 450
km/s with a weak IMF. Solar wind speeds are expected to increase
during the latter half of the UT day of 27 June with the anticipated
arrival of a CME due around 18UT. Energetic particle flux levels
have crossed the event threshold and are presently just above
the S1 level. The elevated flux levels are expected to decline
slowly over the next 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 26 Jun : A K
Australian Region 3 11230001
Cocos Island 2 11220001
Darwin 1 10------
Townsville 4 11330001
Learmonth 4 21320002
Alice Springs 2 11220001
Norfolk Island 3 11230001
Culgoora 3 11230001
Gingin 3 21220101
Camden 3 11230001
Canberra 3 10230000
Melbourne 5 21330001
Launceston 6 22240001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Jun :
Macquarie Island 8 23340000
Casey 7 23321112
Mawson 23 43432226
Davis 15 34431313
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 7 (Quiet)
Melbourne 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 28 2355 5443
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Jun 25 Initially quiet with minor and possible major
storm periods towards the end of the UT day.
28 Jun 30 Active to Minor Storm
29 Jun 16 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 26 was issued on 26 June and
is current for 27-29 Jun. Geomagnetic activity is expected to
be initially quiet then increasing towards the end of the UT
day of 27 June with the anticipated arrival of a CME due around
18UT. Minor storm periods are expected with the arrival of this
CME with major storm levels possible. Minor storm levels are
expected to continue into 28 June.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jun Fair-poor Fair-poor Fair-poor
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 0130UT 26/06, Ended at 0240UT 26/06
and, 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 26 06 2015 1425UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jun Fair Fair Poor(PCA)
28 Jun Fair Fair Fair-poor
29 Jun Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Significantly degraded HF conditions were observed during
26 June as the effects of recent increased geomagnetic activity
levels persist. Degraded conditions are expected to persist for
27 June and then decline further with the anticipated elevation
of geomagnetic activity later in the UT day. Degraded conditions
are expected to continue into 28 June. Conditions at high latitudes
are further degraded by the polar cap absorption event that is
presently in progress and anticipated to continue for 24 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Jun 46
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 30% over the UT day.
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 83
Jun 86
Jul 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Jun 45 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
28 Jun 40 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
29 Jun 50 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 21 was issued
on 26 June and is current for 26-27 Jun. Significantly degraded
HF conditions were observed during 26 June as the effects of
recent increased geomagnetic activity levels persist. Degraded
conditions are expected to persist for 27 June and then decline
further with the anticipated elevation of geomagnetic activity
later in the UT day. Degraded conditions are expected to continue
into 28 June. Conditions at high latitudes are further degraded
by the polar cap absorption event that is presently in progress
and anticipated to continue for 24 hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.2E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Jun
Speed: 600 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 145000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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