[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 June 15 issued 2337 UT on 26 Jun 2015

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jun 27 09:37:25 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 JUNE 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 27 JUNE - 29 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Jun: 101/49


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Jun             28 Jun             29 Jun
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48              95/41              95/41

COMMENT: Solar region 2371 is declining in complexity and size 
as it rotates towards the west limb. There is still the small 
chance of M-class flare activity from this region. A weak CME 
was observed in LASCO C3 imagery around 1430UT on 26 June however 
it appears predominantly westward directed and is not expected 
to be geoeffective. Solar wind speeds are presently around 450 
km/s with a weak IMF. Solar wind speeds are expected to increase 
during the latter half of the UT day of 27 June with the anticipated 
arrival of a CME due around 18UT. Energetic particle flux levels 
have crossed the event threshold and are presently just above 
the S1 level. The elevated flux levels are expected to decline 
slowly over the next 24 hours.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 26 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11230001
      Cocos Island         2   11220001
      Darwin               1   10------
      Townsville           4   11330001
      Learmonth            4   21320002
      Alice Springs        2   11220001
      Norfolk Island       3   11230001
      Culgoora             3   11230001
      Gingin               3   21220101
      Camden               3   11230001
      Canberra             3   10230000
      Melbourne            5   21330001
      Launceston           6   22240001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     8   23340000
      Casey                7   23321112
      Mawson              23   43432226
      Davis               15   34431313

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             7   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           31   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        19
           Planetary             28   2355 5443     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Jun    25    Initially quiet with minor and possible major 
                storm periods towards the end of the UT day.
28 Jun    30    Active to Minor Storm
29 Jun    16    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 26 was issued on 26 June and 
is current for 27-29 Jun. Geomagnetic activity is expected to 
be initially quiet then increasing towards the end of the UT 
day of 27 June with the anticipated arrival of a CME due around 
18UT. Minor storm periods are expected with the arrival of this 
CME with major storm levels possible. Minor storm levels are 
expected to continue into 28 June.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Jun      Fair-poor      Fair-poor      Fair-poor      

PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 0130UT 26/06, Ended at 0240UT 26/06
 and, 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 26 06 2015 1425UT and is in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Jun      Fair           Fair           Poor(PCA)
28 Jun      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor
29 Jun      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair

COMMENT: Significantly degraded HF conditions were observed during 
26 June as the effects of recent increased geomagnetic activity 
levels persist. Degraded conditions are expected to persist for 
27 June and then decline further with the anticipated elevation 
of geomagnetic activity later in the UT day. Degraded conditions 
are expected to continue into 28 June. Conditions at high latitudes 
are further degraded by the polar cap absorption event that is 
presently in progress and anticipated to continue for 24 hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
26 Jun    46

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 30% over the UT day.
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      83
Jun      86
Jul      84

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Jun    45    20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
28 Jun    40    20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
29 Jun    50    15 to 20% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 21 was issued 
on 26 June and is current for 26-27 Jun. Significantly degraded 
HF conditions were observed during 26 June as the effects of 
recent increased geomagnetic activity levels persist. Degraded 
conditions are expected to persist for 27 June and then decline 
further with the anticipated elevation of geomagnetic activity 
later in the UT day. Degraded conditions are expected to continue 
into 28 June. Conditions at high latitudes are further degraded 
by the polar cap absorption event that is presently in progress 
and anticipated to continue for 24 hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.3E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.2E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.10E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Jun
Speed: 600 km/sec  Density:    2.4 p/cc  Temp:   145000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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