[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 July 15 issued 2330 UT on 09 Jul 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 10 09:30:27 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 JULY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 10 JULY - 12 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Jul: 122/75
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Jul 11 Jul 12 Jul
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with
a single C1 flare from region 2381 (N14W02). Activity is expected
low for the next three days, with a chance of M-class flares.
No earth-directed CMEs were observed. The solar wind speed has
declined to ~350 km/s. The total IMF strength peaked at 5 nT
and is now 3 nT. The Bz component mostly varied between +/-4
nT. An increase in the solar wind speed is likely from late on
10-Jul.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 09 Jul : A K
Australian Region 2 12001010
Cocos Island 1 01010010
Darwin 2 12101010
Townsville 3 12102011
Learmonth 3 12102021
Alice Springs 2 12001010
Norfolk Island 1 12001000
Culgoora 3 12102111
Gingin 2 11002020
Camden 3 12102111
Canberra 0 01001000
Melbourne 2 12002110
Launceston 2 11002110
Hobart 2 11001201
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Jul :
Macquarie Island 1 00002100
Casey 6 23212120
Mawson 9 25211120
Davis 9 13321024
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 1111 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Jul 12 Quiet to active
11 Jul 25 Unsettled to minor storm
12 Jul 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 28 was issued on 9 July and
is current for 10-12 Jul. Magnetic conditions were quiet across
the Australian region over the last 24 hours. Continued quiet
conditions are expected until late on 10-Jul, when coronal hole
effects are likely to commence. Active periods and possibly storm
levels at higher latitudes are predicted into 11-Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
11 Jul Normal Normal Poor-fair
12 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Periods of degraded HF conditions are likely at high
latitudes on 10-11 Jul.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Jul 77
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 70
Jul 84
Aug 82
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Jul 75 Near predicted monthly values
11 Jul 80 Near predicted monthly values
12 Jul 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Moderate nighttime MUF depressions were observed across
the Australian region during the last 24 hours. Some sporadic-E
observed at Cocos Island 15-17 UT. Mild geomagnetic storm effects
are expected 11-12 Jul.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Jul
Speed: 385 km/sec Density: 3.0 p/cc Temp: 50000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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