[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 July 15 issued 2329 UT on 08 Jul 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 9 09:29:34 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 JULY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 09 JULY - 11 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Jul: 129/82
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Jul 10 Jul 11 Jul
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 125/78 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with
a single C1 flare from region 2384 (S17E66). This region grew.
Two small filaments lifted off the disk. No earth-directed CMEs
were observed. Solar activity is expected to be low over the
next three days. The solar wind declined gradually from ~420
km/s to ~350 km/s. Total IMF strength rose slightly, peaking
at 5 nT. Bz spent most of the period southward, but only to -4
nT. An equatorial coronal hole is likely to bring higher wind
speeds and stronger IMF from 10-Jul.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 08 Jul : A K
Australian Region 3 01101221
Cocos Island 1 10000210
Darwin 2 01110111
Townsville 4 01211222
Learmonth 3 11110220
Alice Springs 2 00100220
Norfolk Island 1 00100110
Culgoora 3 01101221
Gingin 3 10100321
Camden 4 11111221
Canberra 2 01100210
Melbourne 4 11201221
Launceston 4 11212220
Hobart 2 00201102
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Jul :
Macquarie Island 2 00221110
Casey 5 22121221
Mawson 15 32221444
Davis 18 13221264
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 5 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 2011 1132
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Jul 5 Quiet
10 Jul 12 Quiet to active
11 Jul 25 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were quiet across the Australian
region over the last 24 hours. Continued quiet conditions are
expected for 9 Jul, with some active periods on 10-11 Jul due
to coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal
10 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
11 Jul Normal-fair Normal Poor-fair
COMMENT: Periods of degraded HF conditions are likely at high
latitudes on 10-11 Jul.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Jul 70
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 70
Jul 84
Aug 82
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Jul 70 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
30%
10 Jul 70 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
30%
11 Jul 70 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
30%
COMMENT: Significant MUF depressions were observed in the northern
Australian and Cocos Island regions, with nighttime enhancements
at Niue Island. MUFs were near monthly predicted values elsewhere.
Continued overnight MUF depressions are likely in Northern Australia.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Jul
Speed: 447 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 84500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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