[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 January 15 issued 2330 UT on 12 Jan 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 13 10:30:30 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 JANUARY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 13 JANUARY - 15 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Jan: 159/113
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 175/129 175/129 170/124
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with
C-class flares from several regions. The largest was a C7 flare
from region 2255 (S17W64). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.
The solar wind speed remained mostly between 400-500 km/s. The
IMF Bz component varied between +/-6 nT. Region 2260 (N09W32)
is growing. Region 2249 (S11) which previously produced M-flares
is due to return around 12 Jan. Solar activity is expected to
be low to moderate for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 12 Jan : A K
Australian Region 7 12223222
Cocos Island 5 12122211
Darwin 7 12222223
Townsville 7 12222322
Learmonth 9 22223322
Alice Springs 7 02223222
Norfolk Island 7 12122232
Culgoora 7 12223222
Gingin 8 22123312
Camden 7 12223222
Canberra 6 03222212
Hobart 7 12223222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Jan :
Macquarie Island 8 11124312
Casey 31 56543233
Mawson 21 33344344
Davis 18 34443332
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Jan :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 3132 2123
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
14 Jan 6 Quiet
15 Jan 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled over
the last 24 hours. Similar conditions are expected on 13-Jan,
with quiet conditions for 14-15 Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Jan Normal Normal Normal
15 Jan Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Jan 116
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 106
Jan 89
Feb 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Jan 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
14 Jan 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
15 Jan 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over
the last 24 hours, with some enhanced periods. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted monthly values to enhanced for the next
3 days, with occasional disturbed ionospheric support in Antarctic
regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Jan
Speed: 471 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 118000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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