[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 January 15 issued 2335 UT on 11 Jan 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 12 10:35:25 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 JANUARY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 12 JANUARY - 14 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Jan: 154/109
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan
Activity Low to Moderate Low to Moderate Low to Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 175/129 175/129
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with the
largest event being a C4.2 flare from the vicinity of region
2253 on the west limb at 0543UT. Solar wind speed increased to
~~600km/s at 07UT and has since declined to be 420km/s at the
time of this report. Bz ranged between +/-7nT between 02UT and
11UT with no significant sustained southward excursions. Solar
activity is expected to be at Low levels for the next three days
with the chance of M-class flares. Region 2249 (S11) which previously
produced M-flare(s) is due to return around 12 Jan.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 11 Jan : A K
Australian Region 8 32322122
Cocos Island - --------
Darwin 8 32322122
Townsville 8 22123223
Learmonth 10 32322223
Alice Springs - --------
Norfolk Island 8 32322031
Culgoora 9 32322132
Gingin - --------
Camden 10 32322232
Canberra 6 22321121
Hobart 9 23322222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Jan :
Davis 38 456541--
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Jan :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs NA
Gingin NA
Canberra NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 8 1322 2311
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
13 Jan 6 Quiet
14 Jan 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled conditions observed over the last
24 hours. Similar conditions are expected for 12Jan and Quiet
conditions for 13Jan and 14Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 Jan Normal Normal Normal
14 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Normal to Enhanced MUF's observed for low to high latitudes.
Some periods of disturbed ionospheric support for high latitudes.
Similar conditions are expected for the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Jan 148
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 106
Jan 89
Feb 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Jan 140 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
13 Jan 140 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
14 Jan 140 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Enhanced HF conditions observed across all regions during
the last 24 hours. MUF's are expected to be near predicted monthly
values with enhancements of 10%-20% at times and occasional disturbed
ionospheric support for Antarctic regions for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Jan
Speed: 425 km/sec Density: 3.7 p/cc Temp: 109000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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