[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 January 15 issued 2335 UT on 11 Jan 2015

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 12 10:35:25 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 JANUARY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 12 JANUARY - 14 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Jan: 154/109


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Jan             13 Jan             14 Jan
Activity     Low to Moderate    Low to Moderate    Low to Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   160/114            175/129            175/129

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with the 
largest event being a C4.2 flare from the vicinity of region 
2253 on the west limb at 0543UT. Solar wind speed increased to 
~~600km/s at 07UT and has since declined to be 420km/s at the 
time of this report. Bz ranged between +/-7nT between 02UT and 
11UT with no significant sustained southward excursions. Solar 
activity is expected to be at Low levels for the next three days 
with the chance of M-class flares. Region 2249 (S11) which previously 
produced M-flare(s) is due to return around 12 Jan.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 11 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   32322122
      Cocos Island         -   --------
      Darwin               8   32322122
      Townsville           8   22123223
      Learmonth           10   32322223
      Alice Springs        -   --------
      Norfolk Island       8   32322031
      Culgoora             9   32322132
      Gingin               -   --------
      Camden              10   32322232
      Canberra             6   22321121
      Hobart               9   23322222    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Jan :
      Davis               38   456541--

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Jan : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice Springs       NA
      Gingin              NA
      Canberra            NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              8   1322 2311     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled
13 Jan     6    Quiet
14 Jan     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled conditions observed over the last 
24 hours. Similar conditions are expected for 12Jan and Quiet 
conditions for 13Jan and 14Jan.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
13 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
14 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Normal to Enhanced MUF's observed for low to high latitudes. 
Some periods of disturbed ionospheric support for high latitudes. 
Similar conditions are expected for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
11 Jan   148

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      106
Jan      89
Feb      89

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Jan   140    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
13 Jan   140    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
14 Jan   140    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Enhanced HF conditions observed across all regions during 
the last 24 hours. MUF's are expected to be near predicted monthly 
values with enhancements of 10%-20% at times and occasional disturbed 
ionospheric support for Antarctic regions for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Jan
Speed: 425 km/sec  Density:    3.7 p/cc  Temp:   109000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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