[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 January 15 issued 0041 UT on 01 Jan 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jan 1 11:41:47 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 DECEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 JANUARY - 03 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Dec: 134/88
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity has been low over the last 24 hours.
A few low C-class flares were observed, the largest being a C1.7
event at 0648 UT from region 2253 (S06E48). Solar wind speed
showed a gradual decrease from 600 km/s to around 510 km/s during
the UT day today. The Bz component of IMF varied between +4 and
-6 nT during this period. Solar activity is expected to stay
at low levels for the next three days with some possibility of
isolated M-class event. Solar wind stream is expected to gradually
weaken through 1st and 2nd January. ACE EPAM data indicates an
energetic ion enhancement event beginning 31/0615UT, which can
be a precursor to increased geomagnetic activity over next 24-36
hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
with some Active periods
Estimated Indices 31 Dec : A K
Australian Region 7 22222312
Cocos_Island 7 22222311
Darwin 9 22222323
Townsville 8 22222322
Learmonth 8 22222322
Alice_Springs 7 22222312
Norfolk_Island 6 22222221
Culgoora 7 22222312
Gingin 9 22222412
Camden 8 22222322
Canberra 6 12222311
Hobart 7 22222311
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Dec :
Macquarie_Island 10 21224411
Casey 20 35433422
Mawson 15 23224433
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Dec :
Darwin 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 72 (Active)
Canberra 59 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 17
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
02 Jan 6 Quiet
03 Jan 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions with isolated active
periods were observed today due to the continued effect of a
high speed solar wind stream from a coronal hole. This effect
is expected to gradually weaken over the next 48 hours. Due to
the weakening effect of a high speed solar wind stream from a
coronal hole, geomagnetic activity may remain at quiet to unsettled
levels with isolated active periods on 01 January. Conditions
are then expected to decline to mostly quiet on 02 and 03 January
with some possibility of unsettled periods on 02 January.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jan Normal Normal Normal
02 Jan Normal Normal Normal
03 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values with some periods
of minor to mild enhancements on low and mid latitude locations,
and minor to mild depressions on high latitude locations today.
Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected for the next three
days with the possibility of minor to mild MUF depressions on
high and some mid latitude locations on 01 January. Minor to
mild MUF enhancements are possible on 03 January.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Dec 104
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 113
Dec 106
Jan 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Jan 105 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
02 Jan 110 Near predicted monthly values
03 Jan 115 About 10% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values with some periods
of minor to mild enhancements in Northern Aus/NZ regions and
minor to mild depressions in Southern Aus/NZ regions today. Mostly
normal HF conditions may be expected for the next three days
with the possibility of minor to mild MUF depressions on high
and some mid latitude locations on 01 January. Minor to mild
MUF enhancements are possible on 03 January in this region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: NA
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: NA
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: NA
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: NA
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Dec
Speed: 658 km/sec Density: 2.9 p/cc Temp: 241000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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