[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 February 15 issued 2330 UT on 08 Feb 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Feb 9 10:30:30 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 FEBRUARY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 09 FEBRUARY - 11 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Feb: 153/108
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Feb 10 Feb 11 Feb
Activity Low to moderate Low Low
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 150/105 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low during the UT day, 08 February.
The Largest flare during this period was a C3.1 class flare at
08/2104UT from active region 2277 (N09W70). Expect solar activity
to be Low to Moderate for 09 February. ACE solar wind observations
showed Earth's entry into a high speed solar wind stream increasing
from 400 to 640 km/s over the last 24 hours and is currently
500km/s. Expect a gradual decline in the solar wind speed over
the UT day 09 February. The interplanetary magnetic field Bz
component ranged from ~ +8/-9 nT. A weak CME was observed ejecting
material mainly to the southeast with a smaller amount of material
ejected to the southwest. First observed at 08/0848UT with LASCO
C2 imagery. Not expected to be geoeffective at this time. Type
II sweep observed commencing at 08/2237UT with estimated shock
velocity of 600km/s.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 08 Feb : A K
Australian Region 8 23222222
Cocos Island 4 22211110
Darwin 7 23221222
Townsville 9 23222232
Learmonth 9 23222223
Alice Springs 8 23222222
Norfolk Island 7 23211132
Culgoora 9 -3222232
Gingin 7 22222222
Camden 9 13322232
Canberra 6 13211122
Launceston 11 24322232
Hobart 9 24321122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Feb :
Macquarie Island 10 23421222
Casey 21 36433222
Mawson 27 34433364
Davis 24 23543245
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Feb :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 11 (Quiet)
Canberra 9 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10 1034 2322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
10 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
11 Feb 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions have been Quiet to Unsettled in
the Australian region for the UT day, 08 February. Also Observed
isolated case of Active levels at high latitudes. Expect Quiet
to Unsettled levels to prevail over the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Short-wave fadeouts possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Feb 100
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 104
Feb 90
Mar 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Feb 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
10 Feb 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
11 Feb 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Australian region maximum useable frequencies for HF
communications are expected to be near predicted monthly values
to slightly enhanced for the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Feb
Speed: 412 km/sec Density: 2.7 p/cc Temp: 82400 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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