[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 February 15 issued 2330 UT on 07 Feb 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Feb 8 10:30:48 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 FEBRUARY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 08 FEBRUARY - 10 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Feb: 153/108
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Feb 09 Feb 10 Feb
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 155/109 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low during the UT day, 07 February.
The Largest flare during this period was a C2.5 class flare at
07/1938UT from active region 2277 (N09W57). Expect solar activity
to be Low for 08 February. ACE solar wind observations ranged
from 380 to 470 km/s over the last 24 hours. Expect the solar
wind speed to remain in this range during the UT day, 07 February.
The interplanetary magnetic field Bz component ranged from +/-7
nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 07 Feb : A K
Australian Region 7 21232222
Cocos Island 8 22422220
Darwin 9 22232223
Townsville 8 21231223
Learmonth 8 21232223
Alice Springs 8 12332221
Norfolk Island 7 -1231222
Culgoora 8 1123-223
Gingin 8 21332221
Camden 9 11241223
Canberra 6 11231212
Launceston 10 22242223
Hobart 9 12242222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Feb :
Macquarie Island 15 00453420
Casey 16 35432221
Mawson 16 23343342
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Feb :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 11 (Quiet)
Gingin 12 (Quiet)
Canberra 20 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1111 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
09 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
10 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions have been Quiet to Unsettled in
the Australian region for the UT day, 07 February. Expect Quiet
to Unsettled levels to prevail over the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Feb 134
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 104
Feb 90
Mar 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Feb 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
09 Feb 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
10 Feb 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Australian region maximum useable frequencies for HF
communications are expected to be near predicted monthly values
to slightly enhanced for the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Feb
Speed: 427 km/sec Density: 0.8 p/cc Temp: 78600 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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