[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 February 15 issued 2330 UT on 03 Feb 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Feb 4 10:30:28 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 FEBRUARY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 04 FEBRUARY - 06 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Feb: 149/104
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Feb 05 Feb 06 Feb
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 140/94 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the UT day, 03 February.
The Largest flare during this period was a C3.9/1F class flare
at 03/1053UT from active region 2277 (N09W07). Expect solar activity
to remain at Low levels for the UT day 04 February. ACE solar
wind observations show high speed solar wind stream declining
from 700 to 540 km/s over the last 24 hours. The interplanetary
magnetic field Bz component ranged from -/+5nT. The high speed
stream should gradually return to moderate levels over the UT
day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 03 Feb : A K
Australian Region 11 33223223
Cocos Island 6 22212221
Darwin 9 32222223
Townsville 10 -3223223
Learmonth 11 32223323
Alice Springs 10 33222223
Norfolk Island 7 22222222
Culgoora 10 33222223
Gingin 14 33233333
Camden 11 23322323
Canberra 12 33333222
Launceston 15 33333333
Hobart 13 33333322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Feb :
Macquarie Island 24 34454432
Casey 25 45542333
Mawson 51 55533557
Davis 45 45544664
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Feb :
Darwin 36 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 41 (Unsettled)
Canberra 37 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 22 5443 3433
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
05 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
06 Feb 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions have been Quiet to Unsettled in
the Australian region for the UT day, 03 February. Note periods
of Active and Minor Storm levels observed at higher latitudes.
Expect Quiet to Unsettled levels to prevail over the next 3 days
as the solar wind returns to moderate speed
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Feb Normal Normal Normal
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Feb 122
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 104
Feb 90
Mar 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Feb 90 Near predicted monthly values
05 Feb 105 Near predicted monthly values
06 Feb 105 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Australian region maximum useable frequencies for HF
communications are expected to be near predicted monthly values
for the next few days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Feb
Speed: 664 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 191000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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