[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 February 15 issued 2330 UT on 02 Feb 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Feb 3 10:30:30 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 FEBRUARY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 03 FEBRUARY - 05 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Feb: 140/94
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Feb 04 Feb 05 Feb
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 130/84 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the UT day, 02 February.
The Largest flare during this period was a C2.6 class Flare at
2312UT. Expect solar activity to remain at Low levels for the
UT day 03 February. ACE solar wind observations show high speed
solar wind stream ranging between 500 and 780 km/s over the last
24 hours and presently just over 600 km/s. The interplanetary
magnetic field Bz component ranged from -/+11nT. The high speed
stream should gradually return to moderate levels over the next
2 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Feb: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 02 Feb : A K
Australian Region 17 44342332
Cocos Island 11 33232322
Darwin 14 43332323
Townsville 14 33332333
Learmonth 17 44333332
Alice Springs 12 33332322
Norfolk Island 16 53332232
Culgoora 14 33332333
Gingin 22 54343342
Camden 18 44342333
Canberra 16 34342332
Launceston 23 44453333
Hobart 18 34443332
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Feb :
Macquarie Island 38 35564543
Casey 36 56643333
Mawson 54 56554473
Davis 40 55553462
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Feb :
Darwin 75 (Active)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 16 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 8 (Quiet)
Gingin 131 (Severe storm)
Canberra 89 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 23
Planetary 28
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 13 4221 1344
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Feb 12 Unsettled
04 Feb 11 Unsettled
05 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 1 was issued on 2 February and
is current for 1-3 Feb. Magnetic conditions have been Unsettled
with some isolated Active periods in the Australian region. Note
isolated Minor Storm periods observed at higher latitudes. Expect
Unsettled to isolated cases of Active levels to prevail over
the next 2 days due to the elevated solar wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Feb 132
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 104
Feb 90
Mar 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Feb 125 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
04 Feb 125 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
05 Feb 125 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Australian region maximum useable frequencies for HF
communications are expected to be near predicted monthly values
to slightly elevated for the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.70E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Feb
Speed: 535 km/sec Density: 3.1 p/cc Temp: 196000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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