[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 December 15 issued 2330 UT on 04 Dec 2015 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 5 10:30:26 EST 2015
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 DECEMBER 2015 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 DECEMBER - 07 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Dec: 98/45
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Dec 06 Dec 07 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 105/54
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was Low during 4 Dec UT. AR 2462(N09E57)
produced the largest flare of the day, a C4 event peaking at
1710 UT. SOHO LASCO telescopes recorded a CME expanding toward
the NE ~1748UT. This CME is not Earthward directed. Expect mostly
Low solar activity next three days. Solar wind speed remained
steady at around 400 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field ranged between +/-5nT and is currently weakly
southward. Solar wind conditions are expected to be at nominal
levels today, 05 Dec before picking up 06 Dec due to coronal
hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 04 Dec : A K
Australian Region 3 12111002
Cocos Island 1 12100000
Darwin 2 11011002
Townsville 3 12111102
Learmonth 3 21111102
Alice Springs 3 12111002
Norfolk Island 0 01000001
Gingin 3 22111101
Camden 4 12111112
Canberra 1 01010001
Hobart 3 12111002
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Dec :
Macquarie Island 1 11010001
Casey 13 44332112
Mawson 9 23223213
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 5 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1211 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Dec 7 Quiet
06 Dec 20 Quiet to Active
07 Dec 30 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet throughout the Australian
region during 04 Dec UT and they are expected to remain mostly
Quiet day one. Anticipated solar wind disturbance on days two
and three of the forecast period is expected to result in Unsettled
to Active geomagnetic. Possible storm periods at higher latitudes,
especially if IMF Bz has an extended southward excursion.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Dec Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Dec Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
06 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
07 Dec Normal-fair Poor-fair Poor-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Dec 49
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 55
Dec 65
Jan 64
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Dec 50 Near predicted monthly values
06 Dec 40 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
07 Dec 35 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were mildly
depressed throughout the Australian region during 04 Dec. Periods
of blanketing sporadic-E conditions observed at times in Southern
Australian region. Depressed HF propagation conditions days two
and three of the forecast period due anticipated increase in
geomagnetic activity on these days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Dec
Speed: 397 km/sec Density: 3.2 p/cc Temp: 99800 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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