[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 December 15 issued 2330 UT on 03 Dec 2015 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 4 10:30:29 EST 2015
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 DECEMBER 2015 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 DECEMBER - 06 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Dec: 95/41
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Dec 05 Dec 06 Dec
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was Low on 03 Dec. Active Region
2458 (N09W79) produced a single C1 flare at 0628UT. The 3-day
outlook is for Very Low solar activity with weak C class flares.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.
Solar wind speed was steady at around 400 km/s. The Bz component
of the interplanetary magnetic field ranged between +/-5nT. Solar
wind speed is likely to reduce further on 04-05 Dec, before picking
up 06 Dec due to coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 03 Dec : A K
Australian Region 3 21010112
Cocos Island 1 11010100
Darwin 3 21110112
Townsville 3 21110112
Learmonth 3 21011102
Alice Springs 2 21010102
Norfolk Island 2 22010011
Gingin 3 21010112
Camden 3 21110112
Canberra 3 31010001
Hobart 3 22110011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Dec :
Macquarie Island 1 11010001
Casey 14 34432222
Mawson 9 23232222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 1132 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Dec 7 Quiet
05 Dec 7 Quiet
06 Dec 15 Quiet to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet throughout the Australian
region during 03 Dec UT and they are expected to remain Quiet
for the next two days. Conditions may become Unsettled to Active
during 06 Dec due to the arrival of faster wind emanating from
coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Dec Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Dec Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
05 Dec Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
06 Dec Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Dec 41
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 55
Dec 65
Jan 64
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Dec 50 Near predicted monthly values
05 Dec 50 Near predicted monthly values
06 Dec 40 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were mildly
depressed throughout the Australian region during 03 Dec. Increased
geomagnetic activity may lead to depressed HF propagation conditions
during day three.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Dec
Speed: 428 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 111000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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