[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 December 15 issued 2330 UT on 01 Dec 2015 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Dec 2 10:30:28 EST 2015


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 DECEMBER 2015 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 DECEMBER - 04 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Dec:  95/41


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Dec             03 Dec             04 Dec
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              95/41              90/34

COMMENT: Solar flare activity was Low during 1 Dec UT. Very Low 
to Low solar activity is expected for the next 3 days. The solar 
wind speed stayed around 440 km/s until ~ 0800 then it increased 
to 550km/s and is presently around 500 Km/s. The Bz component 
of the interplanetary magnetic field ranged between +/-5nT, mostly 
southward between 0900-1200UT. The CME observed on 29-Nov will 
probably give Earth a glancing blow today, day one of the forecast 
period which can result in mild to moderate solar wind disturbance 
persisting into day two.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 01 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       9   22223322
      Cocos Island         7   12123321
      Darwin               9   22223322
      Townsville          10   22233322
      Learmonth           15   22223533
      Alice Springs        9   22223322
      Norfolk Island       8   22232222
      Gingin              17   31224533
      Camden              11   23233322
      Canberra             7   12123222
      Hobart              10   22233322    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Dec :
      Macquarie Island    19   22155422
      Casey               24   45543322
      Mawson              26   43234455

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           12   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             15   3444 3212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Dec    20    Quiet to Active
03 Dec    15    Quiet to Active
04 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 55 was issued on 1 December 
and is current for 2-3 Dec. Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet 
to Unsettled throughout the Australian region during 1 Dec UT. 
A glancing blow from a halo CME launched during 29 Nov may cause 
Active geomagnetic conditions during 02-03 Dec. Possible storm 
periods at higher latitudes, especially if IMF Bz has an extended 
southward excursion.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Dec      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
03 Dec      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
04 Dec      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Moderately degraded HF conditions are expected for the 
next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
01 Dec    66

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      55
Dec      65
Jan      64

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Dec    45    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                20%
03 Dec    45    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                20%
04 Dec    60    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 74 was issued on 30 November 
and is current for 30 Nov to 2 Dec. Conditions for HF radio wave 
propagation were mildly depressed throughout the Australian region 
during 01 Dec UT. Minor degradations in HF conditions 2-3 Dec 
due to a possible rise in geomagnetic activity levels on these 
days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.00E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Nov
Speed: 488 km/sec  Density:    4.6 p/cc  Temp:   164000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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