[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 November 15 issued 2330 UT on 30 Nov 2015 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 1 10:30:37 EST 2015
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 NOVEMBER 2015 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 DECEMBER - 03 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Nov: 96/43
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Dec 02 Dec 03 Dec
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 90/34
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was Low during 30 Nov UT with a
single low level C class event from AR 2458(N09W3)at 0706UT.
Solar activity is expected to be Very Low to Low for the next
few days. SOHO LASCO telescopes recorded a CME around 0248UT.
This CME is not Earthward directed. ACE spacecraft detected the
onset of the anticipated coronal hole at approximately 0800UT,
the solar wind speed stayed around 400Km/s until ~ 0800 then
it increased to 520km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field ranged between +/-5nT with a deep excursion to
-13nT at ~ 0800UT. Further strengthening in solar wind stream
is expected due to the coronal hole effect over the next 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Nov: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 30 Nov : A K
Australian Region 13 23442222
Cocos Island 8 23332111
Darwin 11 23432222
Townsville 14 33442222
Learmonth 14 23442223
Alice Springs 12 22442222
Norfolk Island 10 23431121
Gingin 14 23442223
Camden 15 23542222
Canberra 9 22431112
Hobart 16 33542122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Nov :
Macquarie Island 27 33663211
Casey 26 45642222
Mawson 32 34444256
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Nov :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 34 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Melbourne 39 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 22
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 1111 2133
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Dec 20 Quiet to Active
02 Dec 12 Quiet to Unsettled
03 Dec 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions for the last 24 hours over the
Australian region were Quiet to Active, with a brief Minor storm
period in some locations. Some Major storm periods were observed
in the Antarctic region. Continuing Active periods and possible
storm periods at higher latitudes are likely 1 Dec, especially
if IMF Bz has an extended southward excursion. Conditions are
expected to ease from 2 Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Dec Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
02 Dec Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
03 Dec Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Moderately degraded HF conditions are expected for the
next 2 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Nov 62
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 37
Nov 66
Dec 65
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Dec 45 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
20%
02 Dec 45 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
20%
03 Dec 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 74 was issued on 30 November
and is current for 30 Nov to 2 Dec. Conditions for HF radio wave
propagation were near predicted monthly values at most Australian
region stations during 30 Nov UT. Increased geomagnetic activity
may lead to depressed HF propagation conditions during 1-2 Dec.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Nov
Speed: 415 km/sec Density: 11.6 p/cc Temp: 107000 K Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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