[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 August 15 issued 2331 UT on 18 Aug 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 19 09:31:22 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 AUGUST 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 19 AUGUST - 21 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Aug: 89/33
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Aug 20 Aug 21 Aug
Activity Very low to low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was very low for the UT day, 18
August. There were two isolated B class flares from Region 2403.
The 2-day outlook is for very low activity with the chance of
a weak C class flare. As was mostly anticipated, the CME associated
with Disappearing Solar Filament (DSF) launched on 14 August
did not affect earth. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed on
available LASCO coronagraph imagery for the UT day, 18 August.
The solar wind has gradually declined from 550 to 400 km/s over
the last 24 hours, current solar wind speed is ~400 km/s. During
this period, the Bz component of IMF fluctuated between -5/+5
nT and Bt ranged between 4-7 nT. Expect the solar wind to elevate
over the next 1-2 days due a large Coronal Hole (CH 683) taking
a geoeffective position on the solar disk.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 18 Aug : A K
Australian Region 5 23211201
Cocos Island 3 22121100
Darwin 5 23211201
Townsville 6 23211211
Learmonth 7 33211301
Alice Springs 5 23211201
Norfolk Island 4 23200101
Culgoora 5 23211201
Gingin 5 22211211
Canberra 4 23201200
Launceston 7 33211211
Hobart 5 23211201
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Aug :
Macquarie Island 4 22220200
Casey 10 34321211
Mawson 21 54432234
Davis 15 23432234
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 19 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 27
Planetary 31 4554 5443
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Aug 12 Unsettled
20 Aug 12 Unsettled
21 Aug 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled on 18
August. This was a final burst of activity associated with the
tail end of the CME which arrived at Earth on 15 August. The
three day outlook is geomagnetic conditions are mostly unsettled
and possibly reaching minor storm levels in the high latitude
regions. This is associated with a Co-rotating Interaction Region
(CIR) preceding a high speed solar wind stream emanating from
the large coronal hole (CH 683).
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
20 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
21 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were depressed
during 18 August. The conditions are expected to remain depressed
in both hemispheres during 19 August. They will recover towards
mildly depressed conditions later in the week.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Aug 34
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 50% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 45% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 60
Aug 80
Sep 78
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Aug 35 15 to 30% below predicted monthly values
20 Aug 40 15 to 30% below predicted monthly values
21 Aug 45 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were depressed
throughout the Australian region during 18 August. Similar HF
conditions are expected for 19 and 20 Aug. These depressions
(18 to 20 August) are the after-effects of the geomagnetic storm
which commenced on 15 August and continuos low levels of ionising
solar flux. The HF conditions are expected to slowly trend back
towards mildly depressed conditions relative to the long-term
monthly prediction of T=80.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Aug
Speed: 557 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 154000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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