[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 August 15 issued 2330 UT on 14 Aug 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 15 09:30:27 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 AUGUST 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 15 AUGUST - 17 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Aug: 93/38
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Aug 16 Aug 17 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected Probable
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low for UT day, 14 August, with active
region 2401 producing 4 C-class flares, the strongest was a 1.9C
class flare at 0200UT. Expect solar activity to remain Low due
to active region 2401 over the next three days. A partial halo
CME first observed in LASCO C2 imagery at 14/09:36 UT associated
with and erupting filament centered at S07W47 at 14/0936UT. This
CME is not expected to be geoeffective based on CAT/Enlil model
run. The partial halo CME observed in LASCO C2 imagery at 14:48
UT on 12 August associated with the long duration B7.0 flare
and the filament eruption from the southwest quadrant of the
solar disc is expected to cause a glancing blow early in the
UT day, 16 August. The solar wind declined from 360 km/s to 300
km/s for the first part of the UT day, however increased from
320 to 380 km/s between 1700 and 1800UT most likely due to the
influence of the expected equatorial coronal hole, currently
at 360 km/s. During this period, the Bz component of IMF was
mostly northward only dropping southward for a brief period reaching
-3nT. Expect solar winds to remain near 400km/s over the next
24 hours. Early in the UT day, 16 August, expect the solar wind
will increase further due to the arrival of the 12 August CME.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 14 Aug : A K
Australian Region 0 01000001
Cocos Island 0 11000000
Darwin 1 11000001
Townsville 1 01000011
Learmonth 2 11010012
Alice Springs 0 00000001
Norfolk Island 1 11000001
Culgoora 0 00000011
Gingin 1 00010011
Camden 0 010000--
Canberra 0 00000000
Launceston 0 00000011
Hobart 0 10000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Aug :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 3 22210011
Mawson 8 20111044
Davis 7 21211024
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 12 3432 3212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
16 Aug 20 Active
17 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 32 was issued on 14 August and
is current for 16 Aug only. Geomagnetic activity has been mostly
Quiet for the Australian region with some Unsettled and Active
periods in the Antarctic region. Quiet to Unsettled conditions
are expected in the Australian region for 15 August with possible
periods of Active levels at higher latitudes due to the influence
of the equatorial coronal hole. Geomagnetic activity is expected
to reach Unsettled to Active levels with isolated periods of
Minor Storms at high latitudes on the 16 August due to the expected
arrival of the 12 August CME.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
17 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Aug 38
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 45% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 60
Aug 80
Sep 78
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Aug 40 Depressed 10 to 40%/near predicted monthly values
16 Aug 40 Depressed 10 to 40%/near predicted monthly values
17 Aug 40 Depressed 10 to 40%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 33 was issued on 12 August
and is current for 13-15 Aug. MUFs have ranged between predicted
monthly values and moderate depressions. Expect this trend to
prevail over the next three days due to low EUV resulting from
low sunspot numbers for this period in the solar cycle. Furthermore,
HF conditions may degrade on the 16 August due to an increase
geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Aug
Speed: 378 km/sec Density: 4.1 p/cc Temp: 36900 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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