[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 August 15 issued 2351 UT on 13 Aug 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 14 09:52:00 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 AUGUST 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 14 AUGUST - 16 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Aug: 95/41
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Aug 15 Aug 16 Aug
Activity Very low to low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day, 13 August. Expect
solar activity to return to Very Low levels as active region
2396 rotates around the west limb. A partial halo CME observed
in LASCO C2 imagery at 14:48 UT on 12 August associated with
the long duration B7.0 flare and the filament eruption from the
southwest quadrant, is expected to cause a glancing blow early
in the UT day, 16 August. LASCO C2 imagery also revealed a CME
on the northwest limb on 13 Aug at 0224 UT, however is not expected
to be geoeffective. The solar wind declined from 440 km/s to
350 km/s during the last 24 hrs, current solar wind speed is
~~350 km/s. During this period, the Bz component of IMF varied
between -8/+2 nT and mostly remained southward (negative). Expect
solar winds to remain in this range over the next 24 hours (14
Aug). For the 15 and 16 Aug, it is expected that the solar wind
will increase due to a small coronal hole approaching a geoeffective
location on the solar disk and the arrival of the CME on the
16 Aug.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 Aug : A K
Australian Region 5 22222111
Cocos Island 4 22212110
Darwin 5 22222111
Townsville 6 23222111
Learmonth 6 22222211
Alice Springs 5 22222111
Norfolk Island 6 23222110
Culgoora 6 23222111
Gingin 6 22222211
Camden 6 23222111
Canberra 3 12112100
Launceston 6 23222210
Hobart 5 22222110
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Aug :
Macquarie Island 10 22343210
Casey 8 33322111
Mawson 20 45333242
Davis 12 44332210
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 17 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 12 2331 2333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
15 Aug 12 Unsettled
16 Aug 20 Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity has been mostly Quiet for the Australian
region with some Unsettled and Active periods at higher latitudes.
Quiet to Unsettled conditions are expected for 14 August. The
geomagnetic activity is expected to reach Unsettled levels in
the Australian region with possible periods of Active levels
at higher latitudes on 15 August due to a small coronal hole
approaching a geoeffective location on the solar disk. Geomagnetic
activity is expected to reach Unsettled to Active levels with
isolated periods of Minor Storms at higher latitudes on the 16
August due to the expected arrival of the 12 August CME.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Aug 64
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 60
Aug 80
Sep 78
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Aug 60 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
15 Aug 60 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
16 Aug 50 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 33 was issued on 12 August
and is current for 13-15 Aug. MUFs have ranged between predicted
monthly values and mild depressions. Expect this trend to prevail
over the next three days due to low EUV resulting from low sunspot
numbers for this period in the solar cycle. Furthermore, HF communication
conditions may degrade on the 16 August due to an increase geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Aug
Speed: 394 km/sec Density: 4.4 p/cc Temp: 50000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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