[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 August 15 issued 2355 UT on 09 Aug 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 10 09:55:27 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 AUGUST 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 10 AUGUST - 12 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Aug: 115/66
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Aug 11 Aug 12 Aug
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on 9 August and this was from
region 2396. The solar wind increased from 480 km/s to nearly
600 km during the last 24 hrs. During this period, the Bz component
of IMF varied between +/-5 nT and Bt reached levels of 7 nT.
No earth-directed CMEs was observed for the UT day. Solar wind
conditions are expected to remain mildly disturbed during 10
August due to the lingering effects of a coronal hole and are
expected to abate slowly. Low to moderate levels of solar activity
may be expected for 10 August with C-class flaring likely and
some chance of M-class flaring on this day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 09 Aug : A K
Australian Region 7 12232222
Cocos Island 7 12232221
Darwin 7 1223222-
Townsville 7 1-232222
Learmonth 8 12232322
Alice Springs 8 13232222
Norfolk Island 6 12232211
Culgoora 10 23242222
Gingin 10 12242232
Camden 10 13242222
Canberra 8 02242212
Launceston 15 23352322
Hobart 12 12323423
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Aug :
Macquarie Island 19 13362331
Casey 11 33332222
Mawson 28 25442336
Davis 19 23442235
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 4 (Quiet)
Gingin 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 37 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 14 2334 3233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Aug 12 Quiet to Unsettled
11 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
12 Aug 8 Mostly Quiet and unsettled at times
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity has been mostly quiet to unsettled
for the Australian region with some minor storm periods at high
latitudes. Mostly quiet to unsettled levels are expected for
10 August with a small chance of active levels due to the lingering
effects of a coronal hole.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
11 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
12 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions have been mostly normal to fair during
9 August. Similar conditions are expected for the next few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Aug 59
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 60
Aug 80
Sep 78
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Aug 60 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
15%
11 Aug 60 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
15%
12 Aug 55 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: MUFs have been mainly near predicted monthly values
with some mild depression at times during 9 August. Similar conditions
are expected for the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Aug
Speed: 482 km/sec Density: 4.4 p/cc Temp: 65600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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