[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 August 15 issued 2352 UT on 08 Aug 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 9 09:52:55 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 AUGUST 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 09 AUGUST - 11 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Aug: 121/73
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Aug 10 Aug 11 Aug
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity is expected to be mostly low during 9
August with the small chance of moderate activity, primarily
from region 2396. CME activity was observed during 8 August in
association with filament eruptions from the far south-east quadrant
and north-west limb. These are not expected to be geoeffective
pending further analysis. Solar wind conditions remain mildly
disturbed due to the lingering effects of a coronal hole and
are expected to abate slowly.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 08 Aug : A K
Australian Region 10 22333222
Cocos Island 7 12323111
Darwin 9 22333112
Townsville 10 22333222
Learmonth 10 22333222
Alice Springs 8 22233112
Norfolk Island 7 -2322112
Culgoora 9 12333212
Gingin 10 22333222
Camden 8 12333112
Canberra 5 11232111
Launceston 12 22343223
Hobart 9 31222332
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Aug :
Macquarie Island 22 12365322
Casey 12 33422123
Mawson 30 34434265
Davis 28 23543264
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 40 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 51 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 21 3253 4532
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
10 Aug 6 Quiet
11 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity has been mostly quiet to unsettled
for the Australian region with some storm periods at high latitudes.
Mostly quiet to unsettled levels are expected for 9 August with
the chance of active levels due to the lingering effects of a
coronal hole.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
10 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
11 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions have been mostly normal to fair during
8 August. Similar conditions are expected for the next few days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Aug 64
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed up to 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15%.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 60
Aug 80
Sep 78
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Aug 65 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
15%
10 Aug 65 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
15%
11 Aug 65 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
15%
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 30 was issued on 7
August and is current for 8-9 Aug. MUFs have been mainly near
predicted monthly values with some mild depression at times during
8 August. Similar conditions are expected for the next few days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Aug
Speed: 522 km/sec Density: 3.7 p/cc Temp: 140000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list