[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 April 15 issued 2330 UT on 11 Apr 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 12 09:30:28 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 APRIL 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 12 APRIL - 14 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Apr: 123/76
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Apr 13 Apr 14 Apr
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 130/84 130/84
COMMENT: Solar flare activity remained Low during 11 Apr. The
largest flare was a C4 X-ray flare at 0241UT from newly numbered
region 2321(N12E68). Conditions are expected to remain Low for
the next 3 days with the chance of M-class events. Available
SOHO LASCO images show no clear evidence for Earthward directed
CMEs. ACE solar wind observations show the solar wind speed remained
~~ 370 km/s. The IMF Bz component remained southward until ~1600UT,
the minimum over the last 24 hours was -12nT. The solar wind
parameters are expected to be at nominal levels over the next
24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 11 Apr : A K
Australian Region 11 23333222
Cocos Island 7 23321211
Darwin 9 23332211
Townsville 12 24333222
Learmonth 13 23343321
Alice Springs 10 23333221
Norfolk Island 9 13333111
Culgoora 13 14343222
Gingin 12 23333322
Camden 13 14343222
Canberra 10 13333222
Launceston 18 24444223
Hobart 17 24444222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Apr :
Macquarie Island 31 14466412
Casey 10 23333211
Mawson 27 55542341
Davis 10 33332221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 21
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 21
Planetary 26 4553 3332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
13 Apr 5 Quiet
14 Apr 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet to Active for the
UT day, 11 April. Cases of Storm levels observed in the Antarctic
region. Magnetic conditions are expected to be Quiet to Unsettled
on 12 April and a return to mostly Quiet 13-14 April.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions for the next 24 hours. Possible
short-wave fadeouts.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Apr 104
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 99
Apr 90
May 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Apr 100 About 15% above predicted monthly values
13 Apr 105 About 15% above predicted monthly values
14 Apr 105 About 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum useable frequencies for HF communications are
expected to be around predicted monthly values to slightly enhanced
for the next three days. There is the chance of short-wave fadeouts
over the forecast period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.4E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 9.6E+03
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.20E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Apr
Speed: 399 km/sec Density: 10.3 p/cc Temp: 39800 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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