[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 April 15 issued 2330 UT on 11 Apr 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 12 09:30:28 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 APRIL 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 12 APRIL - 14 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Apr: 123/76


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Apr             13 Apr             14 Apr
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             130/84             130/84

COMMENT: Solar flare activity remained Low during 11 Apr. The 
largest flare was a C4 X-ray flare at 0241UT from newly numbered 
region 2321(N12E68). Conditions are expected to remain Low for 
the next 3 days with the chance of M-class events. Available 
SOHO LASCO images show no clear evidence for Earthward directed 
CMEs. ACE solar wind observations show the solar wind speed remained 
~~ 370 km/s. The IMF Bz component remained southward until ~1600UT, 
the minimum over the last 24 hours was -12nT. The solar wind 
parameters are expected to be at nominal levels over the next 
24 hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 11 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region      11   23333222
      Cocos Island         7   23321211
      Darwin               9   23332211
      Townsville          12   24333222
      Learmonth           13   23343321
      Alice Springs       10   23333221
      Norfolk Island       9   13333111
      Culgoora            13   14343222
      Gingin              12   23333322
      Camden              13   14343222
      Canberra            10   13333222
      Launceston          18   24444223
      Hobart              17   24444222    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Apr :
      Macquarie Island    31   14466412
      Casey               10   23333211
      Mawson              27   55542341
      Davis               10   33332221

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne            4   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        17
           Planetary             21                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        21
           Planetary             26   4553 3332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled
13 Apr     5    Quiet
14 Apr     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet to Active for the 
UT day, 11 April. Cases of Storm levels observed in the Antarctic 
region. Magnetic conditions are expected to be Quiet to Unsettled 
on 12 April and a return to mostly Quiet 13-14 April.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
13 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
14 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions for the next 24 hours. Possible 
short-wave fadeouts.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
11 Apr   104

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      99
Apr      90
May      89

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Apr   100    About 15% above predicted monthly values
13 Apr   105    About 15% above predicted monthly values
14 Apr   105    About 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum useable frequencies for HF communications are 
expected to be around predicted monthly values to slightly enhanced 
for the next three days. There is the chance of short-wave fadeouts 
over the forecast period.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.4E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  9.6E+03
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.20E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Apr
Speed: 399 km/sec  Density:   10.3 p/cc  Temp:    39800 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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