[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 April 15 issued 2338 UT on 10 Apr 2015

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 11 09:38:16 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 APRIL 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 11 APRIL - 13 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Apr: 115/66


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Apr             12 Apr             13 Apr
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             120/72             120/72

COMMENT: Solar flare activity was Low during 10 Apr with numerous 
C-class flares from AR 2320 (S13W39). The largest flare was a 
C7 X-ray flare at 0803UT. Available SOHO LASCO images show no 
clear evidence for Earthward directed CMEs. AR 2230 has a Beta-Delta 
configuration and may produce more strong C class flares with 
a chance of an isolated M-class event. Solar wind speed increased 
further from 360 Km/s to ~490 km/s early UT day (00-02UT)then 
gradually decreased and is currently ~375 km/s. The IMF Bz component 
has been negative during the previous 10 hours. Wind speeds and 
magnetic field strength are likely to persist over the next 24 
hours.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Apr: Quiet to Minor 
Storm

Estimated Indices 10 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region      20   44444322
      Cocos Island        18   44434321
      Darwin              18   44434321
      Townsville          20   44444322
      Learmonth           25   53445422
      Alice Springs       21   43445321
      Norfolk Island      20   44534212
      Culgoora            20   44444322
      Gingin              17   43434321
      Camden              23   44544322
      Canberra            21   44534321
      Launceston          25   45544322
      Hobart              28   3456-322    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Apr :
      Macquarie Island    28   34643522
      Casey               23   34643222
      Mawson              55   47544366
      Davis               28   34554244

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               6   (Quiet)
      Canberra             9   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           32   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        28
           Planetary             36                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             10   2322 2333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Apr    18    Quiet to Active
12 Apr    10    Quiet to Unsettled
13 Apr     7    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet to Active with cases 
of Minor Storm levels for the UT Day, 10 April. Major Storm levels 
observed in the Antarctic region. Magnetic conditions are expected 
to be Quiet to Active today with a chance of isolated Minor Storm 
levels , 11 April, mostly Quiet to Unsettled on 12 April and 
a return to mostly Quiet on 13 April.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Apr      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
12 Apr      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
13 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 Apr   109

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      99
Apr      90
May      89

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Apr    80    Near predicted monthly values
12 Apr    90    Near predicted monthly values
13 Apr   100    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum useable frequencies for HF communications are 
expected to be around predicted monthly values to slightly depressed 
particularly at higher latitudes. There is the chance of short-wave 
fadeouts over the forecast period.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.40E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Apr
Speed: 372 km/sec  Density:    7.4 p/cc  Temp:    45300 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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