[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 April 15 issued 2334 UT on 06 Apr 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 7 09:34:49 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 APRIL 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 07 APRIL - 09 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Apr: 126/79
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Apr 08 Apr 09 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 125/78 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity is at Low levels. The greatest flare
was a C3 flare at 1906UT from Region 2320(S12E16). This region
remains the most significant region on the disk and continues
to grow. Solar flare activity is expected to remain at Low levels
with a slight chance for an M-class flare for the next few days.
No CMEs of significance have been observed in available satellite
imagery. The solar wind speed declined from ~600 km/s to ~450
km/s. The IMF Bz fluctuated between +/-4 nT. Solar wind speed
is expected to continue declining, though late on today, April
7 or early on April 8, there may be a glancing blow from the
CME of April 5.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 06 Apr : A K
Australian Region 2 21201001
Cocos Island 2 21201000
Darwin 2 11201001
Townsville 4 22211101
Learmonth 2 21201100
Alice Springs 2 11201000
Norfolk Island 2 21100002
Culgoora 3 21211101
Gingin 3 21201101
Camden 4 22211101
Canberra 2 21200000
Launceston 4 22211011
Hobart 2 21201001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Apr :
Macquarie Island 2 21001001
Casey 11 34422011
Mawson 14 34311234
Davis 9 233221--
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne 20 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 6 2211 1123
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Apr 12 Quiet with a chance of Unsettled and isolated
cases of Active levels.
08 Apr 12 Quiet with a chance of Unsettled and isolated
cases of Active levels.
09 Apr 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet for the UT day, 06
April. Conditions may increase to Unsettled with isolated cases
of Active levels late on today, 07 April if the shock from the
05 April CME glances the Earth's magnetosphere, otherwise mostly
Quiet conditions for 07-09 April.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Apr 107
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during UT day.
Depressed by 25% 17-20UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 99
Apr 90
May 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Apr 100 Near predicted monthly values
08 Apr 90 Near predicted monthly values
09 Apr 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum useable frequencies for HF communications are
expected to be around predicted monthly values for the next 3
days. The ionosphere may be slightly disturbed particularly at
higher latitudes 08-09 April.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Apr
Speed: 540 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 118000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list