[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 March 15 issued 2330 UT on 31 Mar 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Apr 1 10:30:42 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 MARCH 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 01 APRIL - 03 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Mar: 128/81
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Apr 02 Apr 03 Apr
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 140/94 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day 31 March.
Solar wind speed was light to moderate ranging from 325km to
425km with the IMF Bz component mainly northward over the last
24 hours, however it did dip to -12nT at 1034UT. Solar flare
activity is expected to remain at Very Low to Low levels for
the next three days. A coronal hole high speed wind stream is
expected to arrive at Earth on 02 April.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 31 Mar : A K
Australian Region 8 11223322
Cocos Island 9 11242321
Darwin - --------
Townsville 10 11323332
Learmonth 3 111-----
Alice Springs 8 11223322
Norfolk Island 5 00222222
Culgoora 8 21223322
Gingin 6 11212321
Camden 8 11223322
Canberra 6 11213221
Launceston 9 11323322
Hobart 6 01313221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Mar :
Macquarie Island 6 00134210
Casey 10 23333121
Mawson 9 22323222
Davis 9 13333220
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 9 2111 2422
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Apr 6 Quiet
02 Apr 16 Active
03 Apr 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were Quiet to Unsettled for the
UT Day 31 March. Magnetic conditions are expected to be mostly
Quiet for the UT day 01 April. However on 02 April expect the
arrival of a high speed solar wind stream to induce Active conditions.
In the IPS magnetometer data for 31 Mar, an unexpected weak (11nT)
impulse was observed at 0834UT producing a weak disturbance in
the magnetic field.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Apr Normal Normal Normal
02 Apr Normal Normal-fair Fair
03 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Mar 99
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 116
Mar 90
Apr 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Apr 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
02 Apr 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
03 Apr 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum useable frequencies for HF communications are
expected to be around predicted monthly values to slightly enhanced
for the next two days. The ionosphere may be slightly disturbed
on 03 April due to an anticipated magnetic storm causing minor
disruption in HF communication at higher latitudes.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.3E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Mar
Speed: 334 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 28800 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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