[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 October 14 issued 2335 UT on 14 Oct 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 15 10:35:10 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 OCTOBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 OCTOBER - 17 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Oct: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 1838UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M2.2 2150UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Oct: 120/72
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Oct 16 Oct 17 Oct
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 140/94 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity increased to Moderate levels today, Oct
14. An impulsive M1 flare was produced by a region around the
East limb at 1837UT and a long-duration flare reaching M2 level
at 2150UT. At time of writing no region has been associated with
this event and appropriate coronagraph imagery is not yet available
to determine if these two events have produced CMEs of significance.
GONG H-alpha showed a disappearing solar filament in the SW quadrant
starting around 0844UT does not appear to be Earth-directed.
Low levels of solar activity with a chance of M-flares may be
expected over the next three days. The solar wind speed remains
slightly elevated at between 400-450 km/s. The the Bz component
was mostly negative to -10 nT for the last half of the UT day.
Mildly disturbed solar wind conditions are likely to persist
next 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Oct: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 14 Oct : A K
Australian Region 15 12224434
Cocos Island 12 12122434
Darwin 16 22234434
Townsville 18 22234444
Learmonth 20 12234544
Alice Springs 15 12134434
Norfolk Island 11 02124333
Culgoora 17 12-34434
Gingin 19 11123545
Camden 15 12224434
Canberra 9 02123333
Launceston 17 22224444
Hobart 15 12224443
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Oct :
Macquarie Island 21 01004653
Casey 20 34333335
Mawson 24 22223456
Davis 13 22333333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Oct :
Darwin 12 (Quiet)
Townsville 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Learmonth 13 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 1010 1133
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Oct 16 Unsettled to Active
16 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
17 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly Quiet across the
Australian region over the first half of the UT day. Mild negative
solar wind IMF Bz during the second half of the UT day resulted
in periods of Unsettled to Active geomagnetic conditions. Expect
a similar range of conditions next 24 hours as the present slightly
elevated solar wind stream is likely to persist.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Oct Normal Normal Normal
16 Oct Normal Normal Normal
17 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: There is the slight chance for short-wave fadeouts over
the forecast period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Oct 103
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 65% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20%, 13UT, 20-21UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 90
Oct 86
Nov 83
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Oct 90 Near predicted monthly values
16 Oct 90 Near predicted monthly values
17 Oct 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Ionospheric propagation conditions were enhanced up
to 80% at Cocos Island on Oct 14. Conditions were mostly normal
all regions. Mildly elevated geomagnetic activity may produce
periods of disturbance Antarctic region, possibly extending briefly
to S Aus /NZ regions. There is the slight chance for short-wave
fadeouts over the forecast period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Oct
Speed: 343 km/sec Density: 6.2 p/cc Temp: 49100 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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