[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 November 14 issued 2330 UT on 10 Nov 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 11 10:30:34 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 NOVEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 NOVEMBER - 13 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Nov: 136/90
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Nov 12 Nov 13 Nov
Activity Low Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 165/119 180/133
COMMENT: Solar activity remained low during the last 24 hours.
Several C-class flares were observed today, most from region
2205(N14W08). Today's largest flare was a C7 event from 2205
at 0222UT. Solar wind speed increased from around 420 km/s to
over 500 km/s during the first 2 hours of the UT day today and
then stayed around 500 km/s during the rest of the day. The Bz
component of IMF went up to around +20 nT around 0200 UT, stayed
positive until mid day and then varied between +/-8 nT during
the rest of the day. Solar activity is expected to stay at low
levels with a chance of M class activity on 11 November and at
moderate levels for the following two days thereafter.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Nov: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 10 Nov : A K
Australian Region 15 33333432
Cocos Island 13 32333422
Darwin 16 33333433
Townsville 15 33333432
Learmonth - --------
Alice Springs 14 33333422
Norfolk Island 13 33332332
Culgoora 15 33333432
Gingin 16 32343432
Camden 15 33333432
Canberra 13 32333422
Launceston 23 43443533
Hobart 21 33443532
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Nov :
Macquarie Island 33 32265642
Casey 58 67753333
Mawson 33 44454642
Davis 36 44664432
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Nov :
Darwin 78 (Active)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 37 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 12 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 27
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7 2221 1322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Nov 15 Unsettled to Active
12 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
13 Nov 6 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 17 was issued on 9 November
and is current for 10-11 Nov. Geomagnetic activity increased
to Active levels today with some periods of minor storm periods
recorded at high latitudes. Geomagnetic activity may stay at
Unsettled to Active levels on 11 November and gradually decline
to Unsettled and then to Quiet levels during the following two
days thereafter.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Nov Normal Normal Normal
12 Nov Normal Normal Normal
13 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Periods of minor to mild MUF enhancements on low and
mid latitudes and periods of minor to mild MUF depressions were
observed on mid and high latitudes today. Mostly normal HF conditions
may be expected for the next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Nov 88
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 107
Nov 86
Dec 85
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Nov 90 Near predicted monthly values
12 Nov 95 Near predicted monthly values
13 Nov 95 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 56 was issued on 8
November and is current for 9-11 Nov. Periods of minor to mild
MUF enhancements on low and mid latitudes and periods of minor
to mild MUF depressions were observed on mid and high latitudes
today. Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected for the next
three days in the Aus/NZ regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Nov
Speed: 430 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 81600 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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