[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 November 14 issued 2330 UT on 09 Nov 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 10 10:30:31 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 NOVEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 NOVEMBER - 12 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Nov: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2/-- 1532UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Nov: 132/86
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Nov 11 Nov 12 Nov
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 145/99 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity is Moderate with an M2 flare being produced
by region 2205(N15E18) peaking at 1532UT along with several C
class flares from the same region. No CME was observed in association
with the M flare. Solar wind conditions are ambient. ACE EPAM
data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 09/2040UT,
which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic activity over
next 24-36 hours. This is most likely due to the partial halo
CME observed on the 7th of November which is expected to produce
a glancing blow within the next 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 09 Nov : A K
Australian Region 6 32211122
Cocos Island 3 21101121
Darwin 6 31211122
Townsville 7 32212122
Learmonth 7 311-----
Alice Springs 4 21102122
Norfolk Island 4 21101122
Culgoora 5 21211222
Gingin 7 31211132
Camden 6 22211222
Canberra 4 23101111
Launceston 8 32312222
Hobart 6 32201222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Nov :
Macquarie Island 5 32100222
Casey 24 55532223
Mawson 16 43422342
Davis 13 33423232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Nov :
Darwin 69 (Active)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 34 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 6 1012 2202
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Nov 25 Active to Minor Storm
11 Nov 15 Unsettled to Active
12 Nov 5 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 17 was issued on 9 November
and is current for 10-11 Nov. A glancing blow from a CME is expected
within the next 24 hours and may cause Active to Minor storm
conditions.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Nov Fair Fair Fair-poor
11 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 Nov Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Nov 115
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 107
Nov 86
Dec 85
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Nov 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
11 Nov 100 Near predicted monthly values
12 Nov 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 56 was issued on 8
November and is current for 9-11 Nov. Maximum useable frequencies
were mostly near predicted monthly values. Some depressed MUFs
may be experience in southern regions on the 11th of November
due to geomagnetic disturbance.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.90E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Nov
Speed: 473 km/sec Density: 5.4 p/cc Temp: 105000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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