[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 May 14 issued 2330 UT on 29 May 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 30 09:30:16 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 MAY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 30 MAY - 01 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 May: 103/52
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 May 31 May 01 Jun
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low for the UT day, 29 May. The largest
flare for this period was a C1.4 class X-ray flare from active
region 2071 (S09W60) peaking at 0430UT. Expect solar activity
to be Very Low to Low over the next three days. The solar wind
ranged between just under 300 km/s to 390 km/s over the last
24 hours. A slight deflection to 390 km/s was observed from the
ACE spacecraft in the solar wind around 0830UT, which slowly
returned to pre-deflection levels and is currently around 325
km/s. The Bz component of the IMF ranged between +5/-8 nT during
this period. Expect the solar wind to remain between 300-400
km/s over the next 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 29 May : A K
Australian Region 4 01032120
Cocos Island 2 00121010
Darwin 4 11122111
Townsville 6 11132221
Learmonth 5 01132121
Alice Springs 5 10132121
Norfolk Island 2 01022110
Culgoora 5 01032221
Gingin 5 11032220
Camden 4 01032220
Canberra 2 01022110
Launceston 6 11033220
Hobart 4 01033110
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 May :
Macquarie Island 8 00053100
Casey 4 12122111
Mawson 6 11123221
Davis 5 11123220
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 May :
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 May : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 May : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 2201 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 May 4 Quiet
31 May 4 Quiet
01 Jun 4 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet to Unsettled in the
Australian region during the UT day, 29 May. The Unsettled period
was due to several hours of a weak reconnection between the IMF
and geomagnetic field. Expect mostly Quiet conditions for the
next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 May Normal Normal Normal
31 May Normal Normal Normal
01 Jun Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 May 60
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 115
May 91
Jun 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 May 60 15 to 35% below predicted monthly values
31 May 60 15 to 35% below predicted monthly values
01 Jun 60 15 to 35% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 25 was issued on 27 May
and is current for 28-30 May. Variable depressions to 35% observed
in the Australian region as EUV levels decline due to a decrease
in sunspot numbers. Expect similar conditions over the next three
days. Note MUFs are expected to remain lower than predicted due
to this decrease in EUV.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 May
Speed: 337 km/sec Density: 4.2 p/cc Temp: 45700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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