[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 May 14 issued 2330 UT on 28 May 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 29 09:30:17 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 MAY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 29 MAY - 31 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 May: 99/46
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 May 30 May 31 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 98/45 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low for the UT day, 28 May. Active
region 2065 produced a C1.7 X-ray flare just around the west
limb. This activity is not expected to be geo-effective. Note
minor flaring occurred from emerging flux region 2076. Expect
solar activity to be Very Low to Low over the next three days.
The solar wind ranged between 300 and 400 km/s over the last
24 hours and is currently around 350 km/s. The Bz component of
the IMF ranged between +5/-5 nT during this period. Expect the
solar wind to remain between 300-400 km/s over the next 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 28 May : A K
Australian Region 1 11010011
Cocos Island 1 11010000
Darwin 2 21110011
Townsville 2 21010011
Learmonth 2 21110010
Alice Springs 1 11010011
Norfolk Island 0 11000000
Culgoora 2 11110011
Gingin 1 11000011
Camden 1 11010011
Canberra 1 11000010
Launceston 1 11011010
Hobart 1 11000010
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 May :
Macquarie Island 0 00001000
Casey 2 22110010
Mawson 5 32110022
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 May :
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 May : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 May : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 0 1000 1212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 May 4 Quiet
30 May 4 Quiet
31 May 4 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet in the Australian region
during the UT day, 28 May. Expect mostly Quiet conditions for
the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 May Normal Normal Normal
30 May Normal Normal Normal
31 May Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 May 62
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 115
May 91
Jun 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 May 60 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
30 May 60 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
31 May 60 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 25 was issued on 27 May
and is current for 28-30 May. Variable depressions to 35% observed
in the Australian region as EUV levels decline due to a decrease
in sunspot numbers. Expect similar conditions over the next three
days. Note MUFs are expected to remain lower than predicted due
to this decrease in EUV.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 May
Speed: 320 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 33400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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