[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 March 14 issued 2330 UT on 25 Mar 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 26 10:30:23 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 MARCH 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 26 MARCH - 28 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Mar: 153/108
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Mar 27 Mar 28 Mar
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 160/114 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with
minor C-class flares from regions 2010 (S14W39) and 2015 (S12W67).
A CME first observed at 25/0536 in LASCO C2 imagery does not
appear to be Earth-directed. Solar activity is likely to remain
low for the next 3 days. ACE EPAM data indicated an energetic
ion enhancement event beginning 25/0725UT. This was a precursor
to the arrival of the 23-Mar CME at ACE after 19UT, when the
solar wind speed stepped up to ~500km/s from being below 400km/s
for most of 24-Mar. The IMF Bz component had remained in the
range +/-5nT (mostly positive) until the shock, whereafter it
has fluctuated between +/-10nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 25 Mar : A K
Australian Region 6 11121133
Cocos Island 6 -1111133
Darwin 6 11121133
Townsville 7 11122133
Learmonth 6 11121133
Alice Springs 5 10121033
Norfolk Island 4 10021032
Culgoora 6 -1121--3
Gingin 6 11121133
Camden 5 10021033
Canberra 4 10021023
Launceston 6 11121133
Hobart 4 01121023
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Mar :
Macquarie Island 2 00011022
Casey 14 23231253
Mawson 13 31121154
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Mar :
Darwin 11 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 2001 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Mar 15 Quiet to unsettled, with active to minor storm
levels at high latitudes
27 Mar 5 Quiet
28 Mar 5 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 8 was issued on 24 March and
is current for 26 Mar only. Geomagnetic conditions were mostly
quiet for much of the UT day, until 25/2004UT, when a weak (14nT)
impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer data consistent
with the arrival of the 23-Mar CME. Since then there have been
unsettled conditions across much of the Australian region, with
active to storm levels reached in Antarctica. These conditions
will likely continue for some time during 26-Mar, before quiet
conditions resume later in the UT day. Quiet conditions are also
expected for 27-28 Mar.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 Mar Normal Normal Normal
28 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Some degraded HF conditions are likely at high latitudes
on 26-Mar.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Mar 142
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 121
Mar 79
Apr 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Mar 130 About 20% above predicted monthly values
27 Mar 130 About 20% above predicted monthly values
28 Mar 130 About 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal in the Australian region
over the last 24 hours, with enhanced MUFs in most areas. Similar
conditions are expected for the next three days, with some degraded
periods at high latitudes during 26-Mar.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Mar
Speed: 436 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 88300 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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