[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 March 14 issued 2330 UT on 24 Mar 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 25 10:30:37 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 MARCH 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 25 MARCH - 27 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Mar: 159/113
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Mar 26 Mar 27 Mar
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 165/119 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity has been low over the last 24 hours,
with C-class flares from regions 2014 (S14E07) and 2015 (S14W54),
the largest being a C3 from the latter. Two CMEs were observed
on 24-Mar, but neither appears to be Earth-directed. Solar activity
is likely to remain low over the next 3 days, with a small chance
of M-class flares. The solar wind speed declined gradually over
the last 24 hours from ~500km/s to ~400km/s. The IMF Bz component
varied mostly in the range -2nT to +4nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 24 Mar : A K
Australian Region 3 21111111
Cocos Island 2 11200010
Darwin 3 21101102
Townsville 4 21111112
Learmonth 3 21111210
Alice Springs 2 10101201
Norfolk Island 2 11100111
Culgoora 2 1111110-
Gingin 2 20101110
Camden 4 31111101
Canberra 1 11100101
Launceston 4 12211211
Hobart 2 11210101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Mar :
Macquarie Island 0 01010000
Casey 6 23320111
Mawson 6 31321110
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Mar :
Darwin 8 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 1221 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Mar 5 Quiet
26 Mar 15 Active to minor storm levels at high latitudes
27 Mar 5 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 8 was issued on 24 March and
is current for 26 Mar only. Geomagnetic conditions were mostly
quiet over the last 24 hours in the Australian region. Some unsettled
periods were observed in the Antarctic region early in the UT
day. Mostly quiet conditions are expected for the Australian
region for 25 and 27 March, with the possibility of active to
minor storm levels at high latitudes on 26-Mar with the arrival
of a CME from 23-Mar.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Mar Normal Normal Normal
26 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Possibility of degraded HF communications at high latitudes
on 26-Mar due to arrival of CME from 23-Mar.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Mar 138
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 121
Mar 79
Apr 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Mar 130 About 20% above predicted monthly values
26 Mar 130 About 20% above predicted monthly values
27 Mar 130 About 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal in the Australian region
over the last 24 hours, with enhanced MUFs in most areas. Similar
conditions are expected for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 9.9E+03
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.10E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Mar
Speed: 469 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 113000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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