[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 March 14 issued 2330 UT on 01 Mar 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 2 10:30:16 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 MARCH 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 02 MARCH - 04 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Mar: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/-- 1333UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Mar: 165/119
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Mar 03 Mar 04 Mar
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 165/119 165/119
COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate during the UT day, 01 March,
due to an M1-class flare from active region 1982 at 1333UT. Active
regions 1987, 1991, 1992, 1993 and 1994 all produced flares during
the UT day and may continue to produce some weak flare activity.
Active region 1882 (rotating off solar disc) and 1990 may produce
M-class flares with a slight chance for X-class flares. Note
Noise storm activity continues indicating an instability in an
active region. Solar wind conditions have returned to normal,
although proton flux remains elevated due to X-class flare on
25 February. Today, 02 March, there is likely to be a minor increase
in the solar wind due to a weak coronal hole moving into a geoeffective
location. On 03 March the solar wind should return to normal
levels. Solar wind presently remains around 400km/s and the Bz
component of the interplanetary magnetic field ranged between
+/-4 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 01 Mar : A K
Australian Region 4 21121012
Cocos Island 3 11111022
Darwin 4 22111012
Townsville 4 21211022
Learmonth 4 21121022
Alice Springs 4 21121022
Norfolk Island 3 11121011
Culgoora 3 11121012
Gingin 5 21121023
Camden 4 11221012
Canberra 3 11121012
Launceston 6 21232012
Hobart 4 11222012
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Mar :
Macquarie Island 9 21252001
Casey 12 33332223
Davis 14 23441133
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Mar :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10 3333 1212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
03 Mar 6 Quiet
04 Mar 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Mostly at Quiet levels during
the UT day, 01 March with isolated cases of Unsettled and Active
levels in the polar regions. Expect a slight increase in activity
today, 02 march, due to a minor increase in the high speed solar
wind stream from a weak coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 21 02 2014 0015UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Mar Normal Normal Poor(PCA)
03 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Polar Cap Absorption in progress associated with AR1990
X4.9-class flare on 25 February. Expect proton levels to slowly
decrease today, 02 March unless another X-class flare occurs.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Mar 147
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 121
Mar 75
Apr 74
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Mar 130 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
03 Mar 130 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
04 Mar 130 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 16 was issued on 28
February and is current for 1-3 Mar. The numerous active regions
on the disc collectively represent a high probability of M class
flares and moderate short-wave fadeouts (SWFs). Observed MUF's
for most of Australasia were above monthly median values during
the day and night due to increased ionising EUV/X-ray enhanced
by numerous active regions on the disc. Expect this trend to
continue for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.4E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 6.4E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Feb
Speed:NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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