[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 February 14 issued 2345 UT on 28 Feb 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 1 10:46:00 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 FEBRUARY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 01 MARCH - 03 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Feb: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 0048UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Feb: 171/125
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Mar 02 Mar 03 Mar
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate to high
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 170/124 165/119 165/119
COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate during the UT day, 28 February
due to an M1 X-class X-ray flare from active region 1991 at 0048UT.
Active regions 1990 and 1991 have potential to produce both M
and X class flares over the next three days. Active regions 1982,
1987, 1992, and 1993 all produced flares during the UT day and
may continue to produce some weak flare activity. Note, noise
storm activity continues indicating an instability in the active
regions. Solar wind conditions are returning to normal, although
proton flux remains elevated, peaking at 103 pfu at 0845UT, 28
February. On 02 March early in the UT day expect the solar wind
to increase again as a coronal hole moves into a geoeffective
location. Solar wind is presently just under 400km/s after reaching
around 540km/s and due to 25 February X4.9-class flare. The shock
in the solar wind occurring on 27 February at 1608UT caused the
interplanetary magnetic field, Bz, to turn southward, dipping
to -14nT on 27 February at 2128UT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 28 Feb : A K
Australian Region 7 32330111
Cocos Island 4 22220110
Darwin 8 3233011-
Townsville 8 3233111-
Learmonth 8 32330112
Alice Springs 7 31330111
Norfolk Island 6 21330112
Culgoora 7 31330111
Gingin 7 32320112
Camden 7 32330111
Canberra 6 31330101
Launceston 11 42340112
Hobart 7 32330111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Feb :
Macquarie Island 9 3234010-
Casey 27 4464322-
Mawson 23 4543333-
Davis 22 34643221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Feb :
Darwin 8 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 7 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 24 1100 2565
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
02 Mar 12 Unsettled
03 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Active in the first half of
the UT day with Minor Storm levels in Tasmania and the polar
regions. The second half of the UT day was mostly Quiet to Unsettled
in higher latitudes. Expect activity to remain at Mostly Quiet
today with isolated cases of Unsettled levels. On 02 March expect
activity to increase slightly due to the high speed solar wind
stream increasing in speed due to the coronal hole effects. In
the IPS magnetometer data for 27 Feb, a weak (17nT) impulse was
observed at 1651UT.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 21 02 2014 0015UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Mar Normal Normal Poor(PCA)
02 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Polar Cap Absorption in progress associated with AR1990
X4.9-class flare on 25 February. Expect proton levels to slowly
decrease today, 01 March unless another X-class flare occurs.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Feb 132
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 119
Feb 75
Mar 75
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Mar 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
02 Mar 120 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
03 Mar 120 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 16 will be issued
for 01-03 March. The numerous active regions on the disc collectively
represent a high probability of M class flares and moderate short-wave
fadeouts (SWFs). Observed MUF's for most of Australasia were
above monthly median values during the day and night due to increased
ionising EUV/X-ray enhanced by numerous active regions on the
disc. There may be a slight lowering in MUFs values today, 01
March, due to yesterday's geomagnetic activity, however MUFs
are expected to remain near predicted or slightly higher.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.7E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Feb
Speed: 353 km/sec Density: 5.8 p/cc Temp: 47500 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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